Tuvalu threatens to quit the Pacific Islands Forum

By James C. Pearce

Tuvalu is threatening to pull out of the Pacific Islands Forum next month after the host nation, the Solomon Islands, moved to block all external partners from attending, according to The Guardian.

Feleteo Teo, Tuvalu’s prime minister, told The Guardian that the Pacific region “does not need these kinds of distractions.”

Feleteo Teo

“We have far more important issues to focus on, rather than letting ourselves be pressured from outside,” The Guardian quoted Teo as saying.

The Forum leaders meeting will be held in Honiara in September. A month ahead of time,  Jeremiah Manele, the Solomon Islands' prime minister, told the parliament that no dialogue partners would be invited to the annual gathering.

Dialogue partners, including China, the U.S. and Taiwan, have been attending the Forum meetings since 1989. They work with Pacific leaders and contribute to discussions around development and regional security. Although not an official partner, Taiwan has participated at the meetings as a “development partner” for over three decades.

The Solomon Islands is closely allied with China. The decision to block external partners has fuelled speculation that the move was aimed at keeping Taiwan out of the meeting. It has heightened concerns over China’s growing sway in Pacific diplomacy, regional unity, and Western presence.

Tuvalu is one of three Pacific countries that recognizes Taiwan over mainland China. Beijing views this as an affront to its One China principle.

Teo said he would wait to see how other Pacific leaders respond before deciding whether to attend the Forum next month. Teo said he had written to Manele outlining concerns around the inconvenient timing of the decision, and his “difficulties supporting the justification” behind the move.

“We’ll … see what the rest of the leaders’ response is to the proposal by the Solomons, and then we’ll make our decision,” he said. “I’ll wait for the final decision on this arrangement, and then reconsider my participation,” he said.

The Forum's annual meeting is the primary channel through which leaders define region-wide policy agendas. It would have been the first time in months when Pacific countries had the ears of bigger powers such as China and the U.S.

Their exclusion may mean that countries end up losing vital support and aid.

The decision to exclude them could prove costly at a pivotal moment for the region. China is clearly trying to extend its footprint in the Pacific, whilst other powers such as the U.S., U.K. and France have been bulking up their Pacific defenses.

The Solomon Islands switched diplomatic allegiances from Taiwan to China in 2019 and three years later, the countries signed a controversial security pact. Honiara has also received significant Chinese funding, including a recent $1 million donation to buy 27 cars to transport delegates during the forum.

Teo said he “won’t be surprised” if China was behind the decision to block partners from the Forum, saying the unusual move broke with decades of precedent in the region.

“My own personal view is that we do need their development assistance, but we do not need the competition and conflict overshadowing our development agenda in the Pacific.”

Concerns over Beijing’s influence on Forum are not new. At last year’s meeting in Tonga, segments of the Pacific leaders’ communique that referenced Taiwan were altered. Tonga is also strongly allied with China, and it is likely this was a direct result of Chinese influence.

In 2022, two Chinese defence attaches were also removed ejected from the Forum’s meeting in Suva while caught listening to a visual address given by then U. S vice-president Kamala Harris.

While the move was, in all likelihood, done at China’s behest, it is also reflective of the fact that the Solomon Islands is stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Rather than being seen as choosing sides, disinviting the dialogue partners was applying a band-aid, a temporary fix to a bigger problem.

 A U.S. State Department spokesperson said Washington was “disappointed” by the move to exclude partners, and reaffirmed support for the attendance of all partners, including Taiwan, at the Forum.

“All [Forum] partners, and that includes Taiwan, should be invited to participate … regardless of where it is hosted – just as countries that maintain diplomatic ties with Taiwan invite all dialogue partners, including China,” the spokesperson said.

For its part, Taiwan has said it “urges that those existing arrangements be maintained”, adding that its participation at the Pacific meetings would “further strengthen cooperation."

 However, the absence of the U.S. might be consequential. President Trump is set to meet with QUAD and AUKUS members later in the year to discuss security in the region.

But he is openly feuding with India, raising tariffs, and debates over military spending in Congress can now endure after the passage of the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The president is known to be erratic and to quickly lose interest. He also tends to reflect the positions of whoever last had his ear.

The Forum would have been a good chance for someone to convince Trump ahead of these meetings that the Pacific’s security is global security, be it climate change, defense, microchips or supply chains. Alas, that chance might have gone.

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