Tourism recovery moves forward while the Pacific islands fall behind

By Ron Rocky Coloma

Under a clear sky in tropical Micronesia, tourism in Guam and the nearby Northern Mariana Islands is in the midst of a cautious revival. But progress remains uneven, and experts say strategic moves could make the difference between stagnation and real recovery.

Dr. Anyu Liu of The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, one of the authors of PATA’s latest Asia‑Pacific Visitor Forecast update, sees both promise and challenge.

“Pacific islands remain the slowest‑recovering subregion,” he noted.

Despite a rebound that pushes toward pre‑Covid levels by late 2027, the islands lag behind mainland Asia in pace and scale.

Back on Guam, the scene is familiar—but evolving. Where resorts once brimmed with Japanese and Korean tourists, numbers now skew heavily toward U.S. military and domestic leisure travelers.

The Guam Visitors Bureau reports show visitor arrivals for FY2024 as 775,000 compared with 656,000 in 2023—still trailing 2019 levels. More U.S. arrivals are helping steady the wave, but underlying shifts matter just as much.

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From the CNMI side, the mood feels more fragile. Saipan lost its Hyatt Regency earlier this year, and Asiana Airlines suspended flights—signals that recovery remains shaky. With Chinese and Hong Kong tourism slower to return, the CNMI’s economic foundation is brittle.

“We need to all work together,” CNMI Del. Kimberlyn King‑Hinds urged local leaders in May.

Liu sees familiar roots in the islands’ troubles: high airfares, limited flight paths, import-linked prices. “Limited air service and high travel costs undercut their promise,” he said. “To bounce back, they must tailor flight routes, contain transport costs and boost safety and hygiene systems.”

Guam’s 2024 recovery plan follows this recipe—focusing on new air links, market studies, stronger marketing, fresh branding and stakeholder coordination.

That plan echoes regional strategy. Globally, reopening skies helped drive the recovery of Asia-Pacific tourism. But the gains don’t reach every archipelago.

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“Big markets benefit from restored connectivity, visa relaxation, digital adoption," Liu explained.

The CNMI and other smaller Pacific islands haven’t reconnected as fast. Guam’s tourism bounce is partly thanks to more U.S. flights.

The CNMI’s missing link? Routes from Asia’s core—Korea, Japan, China—haven’t returned fully, limiting exposure and resilience.

A deeper dive into Guam’s market reveals structural shifts. Over the past decade, Japanese and Korean arrivals plunged dramatically—Japanese visitors dropped 85 percent, Koreans about 51 percent—taking the island’s tourism DNA with them. Now, U.S. visitors—largely military or government—dominate, but they bring steadier but less profitable business.

CNMI tells a parallel story, especially with delays in Chinese electronic travel authorizations hurting Chinese tourism. Once a major engine, Chinese visitation has slowed, leaving South Koreans as the lead feeder—but even that upswing isn’t enough to offset losses.

Yet, there are glimpses of opportunity. CNMI’s board chair notes that Chinese tourists outspend Koreans, making their return crucial. And logarithmically, the CNMI has seen gradual increases in tourist numbers in early 2024—though still below 2019 levels.

Still, Dr. Liu believes strategy matters more than luck. His advice for island leaders is to build with a conservative baseline—prepare for strained conditions even as you hope for a rebound. Close the gaps in flight connections, control tourism-linked costs, enhance hygiene and safety infrastructure and apply learnings from neighbors.

“New Zealand eased entry for Chinese travelers with valid Australian visas—small innovation, big results,” he said.

On Guam, progress is underway. The Guam Visitor Bureau’s industry recovery updates show steady incremental improvements as local stakeholders reconvene weekly, adjust strategies, monitor hotel occupancy, air connectivity and market sentiment.

October 2024 to June 2025 has seen tangible recovery in arrivals, yet the island hasn't regained its 90 percent hotel occupancy or $213 average daily room rate of 2019—that benchmark remains aspirational.

Back in Micronesia, a regional reality check applies: islands compete for attention and dollars with each other—Guam, CNMI, Palau, Fiji, Okinawa—each jockeying on price, service and convenience. That’s a crowded field. Guam must channel its Chamoru cultural heritage, military-linked stability and natural environment. CNMI must rebuild connectivity, regain trust and showcase its unique strengths.

The stakes go beyond tourism. On Guam, leisure travel supports thousands of jobs in hospitality, dining and retail. In the CNMI, tourism makes up a chunk of government revenue; its fate influences broader social services. Moreover, these islands play a significant geopolitical role; stability and connectivity here help anchor the U.S. presence in Asia-Pacific.

“They need to plan based on the severe scenario. If reality is better, they’ll do even better," Liu said.

That means facing risk head‑on: delayed Asian flights, currency swings, competing island destinations, rising costs. But it also means seizing opportunity: smarter routes, lower barriers, effective storytelling and coordinated branding that draws travelers back.

In the end, the islands face a simple test: reconnect or watch recovery slip away. Guam is marching upward. CNMI stands at a crossroads. Both share that one irreplaceable asset: location. If they play it right, they could be back. If not, the winds may blow them in unpredictable directions.

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