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CNMI faces shrinking population amid dwindling economy

As the commonwealth's economy  seesaws between boom and bust, some residents are packing up for greener pastures



By Jayvee Vallejera

 

For many long-time residents of the Northern Marianas, it must feel like being whiplashed by the harsh volatility of the CNMI’s economic condition, seesawing between boom-and-bust years that are forcing many to ask themselves: Is it time to jump ship and look for opportunities elsewhere?


First, you had the boom years of the garment industry era in the 1980s,

followed by its collapse in the late 2000s. Then there was the boom of the tourism industry after 2012, followed by the near-zero arrivals during the Covid-19 pandemic.


Now, CNMI residents are faced with the slow burn of a struggling economy that continues to defy predictions that recovery is just “around the corner.” For many people, that promise of a boom “around the corner” is too vague and too far off to pin one’s hope on, and the continued gloomy economic condition already feels like déjà vu—a do-over of what happened to the islands in the wake of the fall of the once-booming garment industry.


In its heyday, the entire CNMI garment industry bragged about earning a billion dollars and generating revenue for the government —called “user fees”—that averaged $36 million a year from 1998 to 2002.


By 2007, that plunged to just $13 million and, when the last two garment factories closed in 2009, that source of revenue dried up.


Following the demise of the garment industry, the CNMI began a casino experiment on Saipan, awarding an exclusive license to Imperial Pacific International.  In 2017, the Imperial Pacific opened the casino facility on Saipan, promising economic salvation for the CNMI.


The company said it had invested $3.14 billion in the CNMI for the development of the now-abandoned complex in Garapan. The debt-ridden and controversy-stricken casino facility has since shut down.


That economic tailspin was also reflected in the CNMI’s population numbers. In 2009, the CNMI’s population was at 57,056. A year later, in 2010, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that the CNMI population had dropped to 53,883—a loss of more than a three thousand people.


Since then, the CNMI has relied on its lone remaining industry—tourism—to prop up the limping economy. For a time, the picture looked bleak, with arrivals in the 300,000 range from 2007 to 2011. That started to change in 2012, when visitor arrivals hit the 400,000 range and even went up as high as 653,150 in 2017, just before the Covid-19 pandemic.

casino building accentuated with gold trimmings

Even then, the CNMI’s population continued to hemorrhage. The U.S. Census Bureau’s latest count reports that the CNMI population in 2020 was down to just 47,329, and current numbers are expected to be even be lower, mainly due to the lack of economic activity and stricter immigration controls that have made it harder for CNMI employers to bring in foreign workers.


With the global pandemic now in the world’s rearview mirror, predictions suggest that things will start to look up. and reports that some airlines are resuming flights to the CNMI are bringing with it a whiff of hope.


Good things, however, do not seem to be happening fast enough. News of Hyatt Regency Saipan closing after 43 years of operation and the decision of Asiana Airlines to close its Saipan office after 32 years of being in the CNMI suggest that any show of celebration is premature. This is further backstopped by news that the CNMI’s fledgling casino industry is nearly comatose after stopping operations during the pandemic.


World Bank data shows that the CNMI’s gross domestic product has shrunk from $1.18 billion in 2019 to $858 million in 2024. Now comes the news that the CNMI’s lone interisland flight provider, Star Marianas Air, may suspend its flights to Tinian and Rota in October.


Joshua Wise, vice president of the Saipan Chamber of Commerce, sees these developments as worrisome trends that could signal more closures ahead unless any changes are made to check this downward spiral.


"We’re now seeing signs that the economy is collapsing, people are leaving, and our population and workforce are declining,” Wise said earlier said.


The next census will not come around until 2030, so there are no hard numbers yet on the CNMI’s current population. numbers. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that the islands’ population has gone down even more, not just because of limited employment availability, in the CNMI but also because of immigration requirements like the “touchback” rule. This rule has resulted in more foreign workers leaving the CNMI and prompting many to seek their fortunes elsewhere, where immigration concerns do not impact their ability to work.


When the question of moving off-island was posed to people who were asked to be interviewed for this story, Kimberly B. Esmores replied that she and her husband were considering looking for better opportunities. With work hours being cut and few signs that things would get better anytime soon, the idea of finding other job opportunities elsewhere was tempting. However, their decision ultimately boiled down to a practical consideration of who would take care of their dog.


“What’s holding me back is the fact that we have no means to bring our dog with us and he’s literally our whole life,” she said, laughing.



Another person, who asked not to be named, said she has plans to explore better opportunities elsewhere if the economy continues its downward spiral. “However, this place is home and I do hope things will get better soon,” she added.


That seems to be the most dominant reason for many others, who said the CNMI is home, and they are rooted in this place here. Catherine Perry of Integrity Communications is one such example. “I've lived most of my life in the Marianas, and yes, I have recently considered moving off island, more for a change than due to economic conditions,” she said. “However, my mother and father live in Saipan and they are both in their 80s, so for now, I know my place is still here.”  


Perry is confident, though, in the resilience of the Marianas economy and is 100 percent sure in its ability to recover and that it's just a matter of time. “The real question is, what kind of community do we want to be, whether the economy is booming or weak? For me, that's what makes the Marianas an ideal place to live—respect, respetu, awoowoo— living in harmony with each other and with nature.


'Others pay hundreds or thousands of dollars to experience it. In good times or bad, this is our true wealth, and it will continue to pay dividends over time if we continue to invest in it,” she said.


Some families have already moved to Guam and the U.S. mainland.


Victor Tuquero and his wife, Janny, relocated to Guam last year after living on Saipan for more than three decades.


Tuquero, who came to Saipan in 1992, owned a construction company in the CNMI. “The situation on Saipan has been difficult lately. I used to do a lot of work, but in recent years, projects have been hard to come by,” Tuquero said.


The situation in the CNMI has prompted the couple to try their luck on Guam. Janny Tuquero resigned from her job at the Division of Youth Services.


“All our children have moved to the U.S. mainland. They found jobs there,” Tuquero said. “I still have my house and vehicles on Saipan."


He has bought a property on Guam and has started working on small construction projects.


Alex Escano, his wife Rita Escano, and their two children moved to Texas last year to look for work opportunities.


Escano worked in construction upon arrival in the CNMI in 2016. "Saipan is a good place, but I have different plans for my family and that’s the reason we made the move to the U.S. mainland," Alex Escano said.  


Escano is currently working for a catering company that prepares meals for United Airlines in Houston. "There’s a lot of opportunities here in Texas. If you work hard and you are industrious, you can cover and pay all your bills," Escano said.


Escano has also enlisted in the U.S. Army and will start his training on Sept. 10. "If it’s for my family, I will do everything, no matter how tired I get,” he said. "But it does not mean we are not coming back. My wife is from Saipan, we will come to visit.” (With additional reports from Bryan Manabat and Mar-Vic Cagurangan)





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