Philippines, Guam will be drawn into a Taiwan conflict

China's DF-26 is an intermediate-range ballistic missile called DF-26 is also nicknamed "Guam Killer" by the Chinese media.

 By Jayvee Vallejera

As Taiwan’s closest neighbor to the south, the Philippines would be drawn into any conflict if China invades the island nation, which it considers part of its territory.

Guam would not be a spectator, either. As home to military bases, Guam would be in a battlespace as well, said Dr. Jonathan E. Malaya, special adviser to the National Security Council of the Philippines.

“The Philippines knows this, too, because we face aggression in the West Philippine Sea. This is why peacebuilding is not optional,” Malaya said,

speaking at a University of Guam peace conference on Nov.

Malaya said the Philippines does not intend to interfere in the China-Taiwan issue, but it would be dragged into the conflict because of its proximity to Taiwan.

The northernmost island of the Philippines is only about 88 miles (142 km) from Taiwan’s southernmost tip.

“The implications for the Philippines, the region, and the world are dire,” Malaya said.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said as much during a visit to India in August, when he said the Philippines would inevitably be drawn into any conflict over Taiwan due to its geographic proximity to the country and the large presence of Filipino workers there who would have to be evacuated.

If China chooses to invade Taiwan, Malaya said this would result in millions being displaced within weeks, triggering a global recession that would affect energy, the food supply, and the possibility of nuclear contamination across the Pacific.

Cornelio H. Valencia Jr., assistant director general and NSC spokesperson, who also spoke at the conference, said the increasing tension in the region underscores the need for education to fight China’s aggression and protect Philippine sovereignty.

Both Malaya and Valencia said that educating people is necessary to create peace and prevent conflict.

“Beyond ships and strategies, the real foundation of enduring peace lies in people, knowledge, and education. The most sustainable form of deterrence is not built in shipyards but in classrooms where understanding, empathy, and cooperation take root,” Valencia said.

“Misinformation corrodes a nation’s cohesion faster than any external threat,” he added.

Education is not just preparation for employment, Malaya said. “We need universities that teach critical thinking, civic responsibility conflict resolution, and media literacy. Democracies remain strong only when citizens can differentiate truth from manipulation,” he added.

This is why education is a priority, Valencia said. He pointed out that people educated in critical thinking, systems understanding, and intercultural dialogue are less vulnerable to misinformation, extremism and manipulation.

“The greatest deterrent to conflict is not fear. It is understanding and ingrained values. Through education, we cultivate people who choose reason over aggression, dialogue over division, and cooperation over confrontation,” he added.

Malaya said transparency is proving to be an effective tool against China. Transparency turns secrecy into accountability and deprives coercive acts of the shadows they rely on, he added.

In the first instance, when the Philippines used transparency as a tool for statecraft, it showed the public a video of a Chinese coast guard vessel pointing a military-grade laser at Philippine coast guard sailors in 2023.

China called this “media sensationalism” and said that the Philippines is “seeking attention.”

“We are not. We are seeking truth. And truth is a strategic asset,” Malaya said.

The video in question, and subsequent videos showing Chinese aggression in the West Philippine Sea, have exposed China’s actions and not just unified the Philippine citizenry but also strengthened a coalition of nations that supports the Philippines, Malaya said.

What is happening in the region right now is a decisive moment, with the Indo-Pacific being the world's most consequential region.

Valencia said that over $5.3 trillion in trade passes through the South China Sea each year, accounting for about one-fourth of global maritime commerce.

“Whoever controls these waters controls the arteries of the global economy,” he added.

Malaya also pointed out that 60 percent of the world’s population lives in the Indo-Pacific region, which spans countries from the Indian Ocean to the western and central Pacific Ocean. 

Military or defense spending in the region is at its highest level in recorded human history, Malaya said.

That is a powder keg that could have dire impacts on the rest of the world, with four nuclear powers operating in the region and coercive actions at sea happening with increasing regularity, he added.

“For the Philippines, this is not an abstract concern. We experience aggression in the West Philippine Sea almost weekly. Guam also lives with this reality every day as the host of forward operating bases of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. But Taiwan lives with it every hour,” Malaya said.

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