New Caledonia deal collapse spells more trouble

By James C. Pearce

A historic deal that would have declared New Caledonia a state has collapsed.

The main pro-independence alliance in the French territory of New Caledonia officially rejected the Paris-led proposal to create a new status for one of France’s last colonies.

A deal signed in August, known as the Bougival Agreement, would have seen New Caledonia become a new state, but not entirely independent from France.

Under the deal, New Caledonia would have remained a part of France, while able to control its own foreign affairs. The population would have been allowed to hold French and Caledonian citizenships, rather than just French.

It also provided for financial aid and recovery funds and permitted French citizens resident for over ten years to vote in elections.

The Bougival Agreement is similar to agreements that Tokelau and the Cook Islands have with New Zealand, which give the territories an ambiguous political structure. While they have independent nation status, they remain part of New Zealand, lack key sovereign powers and the right to international recognition.

Bougival was signed in a suburb of Paris by representatives of both pro- and anti-independence Caledonians, including a negotiator from the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front or FLNKS.

However, FLNKS have set out more concrete steps toward complete independence, known as the Kanaky Agreement.

Among them are the recognition of a Kanak or Caledonian nationality, full control of sovereign powers, economic sovereignty and currency control and international recognition and eventual UN membership.

Fresh provincial elections in November have also been requested. Another sticking point was that French President Emmanuel Macron rejected the idea of another referendum, arguing that the three held and promised by the 1998 Noumea Accords were definitive.

Describing the offered proposition as a “historic compromise," Manuel Valls, France’s interior minister, said the FLNK’s rejection of the deal was "incomprehensible."

The complete draft of the proposed Kanaky Agreement is not yet available, but the pro-independent FLNKS wants it signed ahead of France’s next presidential elections in 2027 on Caledonia Day. The demand makes it immediately less palatable in Paris.

France’s next presidential elections promise to be highly consequential, with the far right again poised to perform well, and the center-left parties lacking a clear candidate to coalesce around.

Macron, whose term is limited, will not want to let the right or his centrist party, En Marche, have this as an issue.

Moreover, New Caledonia’s pro-French parties have all supported the Bougival Agreement, as has the neutral Oceanic Awakening Party and two moderate pro-independence parties, PALIKA and the Progressive Union of Melanesia, which recently quit FLNKS. That means the Kanaky Agreement is even less likely to attract wider support.

Furthermore, the proposed fresh elections are viewed in France as a cynical ploy.

Local elections were postponed until mid-2026 due to the May 2024 riots. It is widely thought that FLNKS wants to use fresh elections as a means of capitalizing on increased pro-independence sentiment.

Valls headed to New Caledonia at the end of August to shore up support for the deal and iron out the final creases.

While FLNKS representatives have met with Valls, they refused to participate in the Bougival talks any further and made no additional comments.

It is unlikely FLNKS’ position has changed and there are heightened concerns among its members that the French government might try to force the deal through.

The French Constitution requires a vote of three-fifths in the National Assembly and a positive referendum vote in New Caledonia itself.

That means Bougival can pass without the support of FLNKS. Such a prospect brings the risk of further violence.

Marie-Pierre Goyetche, a member of the political bureau, called for the organization of a “peaceful” opposition to any such attempt and warned that the FLNKS would not allow the French state to “force through” the agreement.

Dominique Fochi, another member of the bureau, said in a press conference that the agreement was “incompatible with the fundamentals and achievements of [the FLNKS’] struggle.”

New Caledonia has been plagued by an economic crisis, tensions between its communities and political violence, while increasingly becoming a target for foreign interference, most notably from Azerbaijan, a country with zero connections to the Pacific.

It is a strategically important territory for France thanks to high levels of natural resources, including nickel, and by serving as a gateway to the Indo-Pacific. With both sides doubling down, the troubles, it seems, look set to continue.

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