Is the clock ticking on ‘2027’? Guam in the center of deterrence as propaganda war heats up
- Admin
- 56 minutes ago
- 4 min read
By Mar-Vic Cagurangan
China is ramping up its “messaging” campaign, along with its “rehearsals for forced unification” with Taiwan as 2027 closes in.
U.S. military officials have an obsession with 2027—referred to as the “Davidson window”—the assumed target year of the People’s Liberation Army’s invasion of the democratically-ruled Taiwan. At the 80th victory parade in Beijing on Sept. 3, China boasted its advanced new military hardware, including a weapon dubbed the “Guam Killer.”
The U.S. military responds to China’s force posture “messaging” with its own, hyping the yet-to-be-delivered Guam missile defense system, the Department of War's largest investment in the Pacific.
“Deterrence is our highest duty. Deterrence is the potential enemy's knowledge of capability and will. Our adversaries must know the cost of aggression outweighs any perceived gain of aggression,” said Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of the Indo-Pacific Command.
Keynoting the opening of the Guam Defense Forum hosted by the Guam Economic Development Authority at the Dusit Thani Hotel on Wednesday, Paparo highlighted the U.S. territory's role in the Indo-Pacific Strategy.
“Our partners draw strength from Guam and from Guam's leadership. Guam anchors America's ability to defend, to project power, to sustain alliances and partnerships, and, above all, to deter aggression,” Paparo said.
“From the seabed to space, and from the surface to the heavens, we must defend Guam in 360 degrees, and Guam never stands alone and must never stand alone,” he added.
The “Davidson window,” named after former Indo-Pacom Adm. Philip Davidson, was based on an assumption that Chinese President Xi Jinping would mark the communist regime's centennial anniversary by taking over Taiwan. Beijing insists that Taiwan is its own territory.
“If chairman Xi wants to make that decision by 2027, it's in his tool bag to be able to make that decision,” said Mario DiBenedetto, intel director. “This does not mean he can't choose to invade earlier. If he wants to make that decision by then, also, it's a window.”
While the United States has a longstanding one-China policy, its relations with Taipei are guided by the Taiwan Relations Act. The agreement obligates the U.S. make available defense articles and services as necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.
Along with its resolve to invade Taiwan, DiBenedetto said, China is simultaneously focused on keeping the U.S. from interfering.
“In other words, keeping us out of the fight. And that's where we see the strategic threat environment here in Guam,” he said.
DiBenedetto noted that PLA’s exercises “come with a significant messaging component,” including footage released in 2019 showing its next-generation intermediate ballistic missile purportedly aimed at Guam.
“Based on our understanding of PLA doctrine and training and messaging, if PLA were to use military to force unification with Taiwan or another disputed area, the PLA would look to immediately and definitively dissuade U.S. allies from intervening in its actions,” he added.
“How it would look to do this is by using a range of options to undermine U.S. resolve and power projection capabilities, while attempting to limit escalation,” he added.
The 2027 scenario may or may not happen. “What is the strategy in the Pacific?” is “the real question,” according to Col. Chris Wehri, senior strategist for the U.S. Army.
“One thing that's often lost about the Indo-Pacific is the uniqueness of it, compared to other parts of the world, specifically,” Wehri said.
He noted that the United States has mutual defense treaties with Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Thailand, Korea and Japan.
“Those nations all have a specific mutual defense treaty list, which would mean that in any specific that's interesting or crisis for one of those countries unrelated to the big topic that people have always talked about, which is China, we would be compelled to determine how we would protect them or conduct operations with them in support of the crisis they were facing,” he said.
“And when you think about it that way, it requires that we do have a robust force posture across the Indo-Pacific, a large part of the surface. In fact, 54 percent of the world is over westwide, the United States and the Pacific.”
Rear Adm. Joshua Lasky, commander of the Joint Task Force Micronesia, reiterated Guam’s role as a strong deterrence.
“The conditions we create here—energy resilience, infrastructure reliability, secure supply chains, robust cyber security—directly determine whether we can succeed,” Lasky said on Thursday.
“If deterrence falters here in the Pacific, we can expect attempts to isolate countries to dramatically disrupt supply chains and energy grids, if unchecked, even to directly threaten them. The lesson is clear. The cost of prevention, the readiness of deterrence is far less than the cost of response after deterrence fails,” he added.
DiBenedetto said that while the PLA showcases its capabilities and supposed readiness to invade, the narrative does not match China’s realities.
“China is not always going to be ready to invade,” he said. “Chairman understands that the risk window will go back up.”
Xi’s potential fourth term as China’s leader would begin in 2027 and run through 2032.
“Likely, he doesn't want to wait until the end of the term when he has to deal with the internal political dynamics of the government operation. Not to mention, China has things like economic challenges, demographics challenges, U.S. military modernization and Taiwan military modernization it has to think about,” DiBenedetto said.
He said deterrence intends to push back the “risk window.”
At this point, Benedetto said Xi understands that the risk “is too great” to PLA forces and that any aggression “will not succeed.”
Lasky, for his part, warned that “those who push hard” against the U.S. “will only fail the attack.”
“The price for the attempt will be every project, every exercise, everything we do is to ensure we are ready to deny aggression, to ensure we're ready, and others know we're ready to exact the cost,” he said.
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