GAO: Department of Defense faces support challenges for defense of Guam

 By Mar-Vic Cagurangan

While the military size on Guam is projected to double in 10 years—from 10,000 in 2024 to 20,000 in 2033—the Department of Defense has yet to determine the infrastructure capacity it needs to support the population surge, hence its inability to make adequate plans, according to the Government Accountability Office.

The DOD will beef up its capability on Guam with a missile defense system that will bring Army personnel to the island.

GAO found that military services have not identified personnel requirements

 or completed deployment schedules, impeding the DOD's planning process for housing, schools, medical care facilities and commissaries.

"DOD has identified that those facilities are already facing capacity issues," states the GAO report released May 22. "As such, DOD will not know how much the addition of GDS personnel will exacerbate existing challenges with the support infrastructure."

The security agreement between the United States and Japan calls for the relocation of 5,000 Marines and approximately 1,300 dependents from Okinawa to Guam.

The Joint Region Marianas expects the size of active-duty personnel and dependents to grow from 17,917 in 2024 to 26,605 in 2034.

However, there are conflicting figures as to the number of Army personnel who will be stationed with the Guam missile defense system.

The Missile Defense System said the facility will need 805 Army personnel by 2027, increasing to 1,044 by 2031. JRM said Guam will have 913 Army personnel by 2028, but the Defense Health Agency estimated the number at 4,464 that year.

“In the absence of decisions on future personnel levels, DOD organizations have developed their own distinct estimates for GDS personnel,” the report said.

Besides the fuzzy number of future additional troops, GAP noted that the planning process is also hindered by uncertainty over the locations of life-support facilities, including unaccompanied personnel barracks, family housing, child and youth services, medical care facilities and other base support facilities.

“Guam has limited space and capacity to support the expected growth in personnel and related installations and services," the report said.

The GAO report indicated that the military is facing similar challenges being experienced by the civilian community outside the fence.

Guam is already facing a housing shortage for military personnel. While the defense department is building new military housing facilities, planners doubt they can complete the projects on time.

Defense schools are approaching full capacity, with the student population growing from 1,735 in 2023 to 2,650 in 2024 across the military services.

The DOD Education Activity estimates that the four DOD schools currently on Guam will exceed capacity by fiscal year 2027 as more Marines arrive in Guam. 

“In October 2024, DOD Education Activity personnel told us they have an uncertain timeline for increasing school capacity, considering the lack of funding,” GAO said.

Medical care is another critical issue due to insufficient facilities on island.

“A JRM briefing states that there are not enough medical personnel in Guam to staff medical treatment facilities without unduly degrading local capacity of civilian personnel on the island,” the report said.

“To accommodate additional military personnel relocating to Guam, the Defense Health Agency estimates that DOD will need approximately 208 additional medical staff to support the increased population across four military medical treatment facilities.”

GAO said an Air Force official acknowledged that DOD cannot depend on the civilian sector to provide medical services, “so the department will have to assess the capacity of DOD’s medical clinic and hospital in Guam to accommodate additional personnel.”

For goods and necessities, Navy officials disclosed the challenge of keeping the commissaries fully stocked due to high demand and supply chain challenges. 

"The addition of (Guam defense system) personnel to Guam will further 

stress the capacity of existing commissaries," GAO said.

The Defense Commissary Agency is currently expanding a commissary facility and a new central distribution center. However, expansion was based on the number of Marines relocating to Guam and did not account for the Army personnel.

“Defense Commissary Agency officials told us DOD has the expansions—and any other commissary projects—on hold until the military services provide accurate numbers for population growth," GAO said.

"According to Defense Commissary Agency personnel, the addition of (Guam defense system) personnel to Guam will further stress the capacity of existing commissaries.”

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