Digital tool maps escalating US-China military competition in Micronesia

 By Jayvee Vallejera

Want to see an interactive digital map that shows you military developments and actions in the Western Pacific that could dictate how a possible war between the United States and China could play out?

The newly launched Micronesian Security Monitor provides that picture and the increasingly vital role the Micronesian region will play in that scenario.

Leland Bettis

The Guam-based think tank Pacific Center for Island Security, which runs the Micronesian Security Monitor, describes it as an open-source intelligence tool that provides a full view of

geopolitical developments in the northwest region of Micronesia, which encompasses Guam, the Northern Mariana

Islands, Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Kiribati and Nauru.

A news release about the launch says MSM presents a holistic view of the increasing militarization of the region. It maps the U.S. military’s bases and development sites along the Marianas-Palau arc; military exercises in the region; maritime activities and vessels of interest (updated monthly); and attack assets and their range capabilities.

Additionally, it tracks diplomatic activities, foreign aid, economic investments and humanitarian assistance. It also has links to information from sources such as news articles, news broadcasts, academic studies, thought pieces, leading-edge analyses and military publications that are updated daily.

“Where most commenters on the region look at single events and locations, this first-of-a-kind platform unifies and consolidates data from multiple sources to form a useful resource for policymakers, commentators, researchers and anyone else interested in the region,” said Leland Bettis, PCIS director and long-time Guam resident.

Bettis, lead creator of the MSM, cited as an example the intense activity in August and October by Chinese research vessels west of Guam and north of Kiribati. He said these illustrate China’s growing presence in the region, “and what appears to be a mapping of potential battle spaces.”

Despite the open-source nature of the platform, Bettis assures that all information added to MSM comes from credible, publicly available sources and many of these are sourced in the platform.

“We have worked with our developer and platform host to ensure that all reasonable actions to secure the platform are in place. Given our proximity to the platform (some items are updated daily), anomalous activity should be easy to identify,” he added.

This Micronesian region, last upended by violence during World War II, is once again at the center of an increasing power play, this time between the United States and China. 

Military or defense spending in the region is at its highest level in recorded human history, according to Dr. Jonathan E. Malaya, special adviser to the National Security Council of the Philippines, during a recent peace conference in Guam.

China’s increasingly belligerent actions and rhetoric against Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines and the United States are stoking fears that the region could become a flashpoint.

The United States has defense agreements with countries such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines as part of its containment strategy against the rapidly militarizing China, but it also has a backup plan involving the “Guam cluster” in Micronesia, where the U.S. claims unrestricted military basing, access and overflight rights under the Compact of Free Association.

The U.S. is building up its forces and might in Guam, but it is also adopting a “distributed and dispersed” military strategy in an attempt to minimize the bases and assets exposed to an adversary’s attack. That means scattering its military assets across the region.

As part of this strategy, the U.S. has been developing airfields in Tinian, Yap and several other islands, as well as joint-use facilities (airfields and ports) at every location along the Marianas-Palau arc.

This is where MSM comes in: empowering analysts and observers to understand, interpret and respond to the region's strategic dynamics. With many components of the MSM updated daily by people on the ground, it will provide an accurate overview of a complex region by those on the front lines of awareness.

“The MSM will center islanders, and the islander perspective, in a conversation that too often treats Micronesia as a passive backdrop to great power rivalry,” said PCIS chair Dr. Robert Underwood.

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