On Jan. 21, the day after President Trump’s inauguration, Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted a Quad foreign ministers’ meeting in Washington. They issued a brief joint statement that was squarely focused on security and, without mentioning China, left little to the imagination. It sounded a lot like something that former President Joe Biden could have written.
The Quad – comprising the U.S., India, Japan and Australia – reaffirmed its commitment to a “free and open Indo-Pacific where the rule of law, democratic values, sovereignty and territorial integrity are upheld and defended.” It strongly opposed “unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion” and pledged to bolster security across multiple domains. The Quad will now meet regularly before its next leaders’ summit in India, the statement said.
The returning president reaffirmed his commitment to the group. A surprise to some. Trump, if consistent in nothing else, has always been skeptical of U.S. alliances. So what gives? And will the Quad alliance actually step up in the Indo-Pacific region?
Trump clearly dislikes China and has a thing about whacking it publicly. More so, Trump and India’s Prime Minister, Narednra Modi, clearly like each other. India is also keen on avoiding any tariffs (or at least having to deal with the PR nightmare of tariffs). He also wants to make a success of the upcoming Quad summit later this year – and would not mind some extra military equipment.
Japan is also increasing its defense spending by stratospheric amounts. It is not playing around in the Pacific and its relations with China are also frosty. Australia is also all in, much to the “ick” of its ruling Labor Party.
Problems still lurk, however. While Modi likes Trump personally, he also does not want anything vaguely resembling a formal alliance with the U.S. intelligence-sharing could cause problems with Russia – India’s longtime close ally, which in turn never quite condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
If Ukraine cedes territory and comes out of the conflict the loser (which is looking likelier by the day), China may fancy a run at Taiwan. Could Trump stop Xi? Not if India pisses off Russia – which is also in a very public diplomatic spat with Japan.
India is a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific. Both India and Russia do not like China very much and have shared goals at minimizing its power in North and Central Asia, not to mention the Pacific region. A rupture in this relationship could be more catastrophic for the Pacific than most realize, as China loses yet another barrier to its ambitions.
As for Japan, it has sanctioned Russia more than any other country and the two have territorial disputes in the north Pacific. It puts Europe to shame in that regard, as the continent mostly practices rhetoric over action. But India owes Japan nothing. Who would it really back if push came to shove? Russia. The history of the 20th century is clear eyed about that.
China could also, unfortunately, cripple the U.S. economy in a matter of months if it really wanted. All it has to do is halt exports and find an expensive means of a ‘middle man’. Its bargaining chip? Taiwan, which Trump has suggested he does not really care about. If Russia gets Ukraine, and the U.S. does not bat an eyelid, why not go for Taiwan (or more)?
Next comes Rubio, who has several foreign policy disagreements with Trump. Rubio has a long interest in defending human rights abroad. Trump just put USAID through the woodchipper. That is a problem because the Quad began to branch out from purely defense under Biden’s watch. The group led initiatives on public health, natural disasters and vaccines. There is also a lot more data sharing on maritime activity, allowing ships access to real time information on their voyages, which could be jeopardized.
Rubio will also be fairly hamstrung, having to echo the president’s false rhetoric on Panama and tariffs galore. Rubio is known to disagree with many of Trump’s foreign policy positions and he is already being undermined by Trump’s loyal envoys in the state department. It will be hard for him to actually make foreign policy, never mind anything sensible.
Finally, the personnel themselves. Except for Modi, the Quad has a new team at the helm. Japan’s prime minister and Biden have both left office since last year and Australia’s prime minister, Antony Albanese, is in a tough re-election battle. The Quad might be due a shake-up.
In short, Quad leaders need to make some decisions about what the Quad is, will be and should be doing. Whilst Trump wants PR stunts, the other three nations seem to actually care about the Indo-Pacific.
Dr. James C. Pearce previously worked at the University of Liverpool and the College of the Marshall Islands and lived in Russia for almost a decade. He is the author of “The Use of History in Putin's Russia” and has written on Russian memory politics, historical narratives, education policy and historical anniversaries. Send feedback to jcpearce.91@gmail.com
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