The result of Guam’s congressional race on Nov. 5 did not exactly come as a surprise. It was consistent with Guam’s voting pattern.
The incumbent Republican James Moylan won his first reelection bid after commanding 53 percent of the votes cast in the delegate race. His Democratic challenger Ginger Cruz received nearly 47 percent. Previous congressional races similarly showed narrow leads in favor of the incumbent.
Historically, Guam voters have preferred the incumbent staying in Congress for many years. Madeleine Bordallo served from 2003 to 2019. Robert Underwood was in Congress from 1993 to 2003. Clearly, Guam voters opt for continuity.
In 2017, Bordallo faced a congressional ethics investigation— which was never completed—regarding her living arrangements. While the ethics investigation hardly came up during the 2018 campaign, Bordallo lost the Democratic primary to Michael San Nicolas, who eventually assumed her seat in Congress. It wasn’t exactly the ethics probe that sealed her fate. Guam voters simply decided it was time for her to retire.
Incidentally, San Nicolas faced an ethics complaint in Congress as well. Had he run for reelection, would the congressional ethics investigation have influenced the voters’ decision? Obviously, the question is moot now. We never got to find the answer.
But San Nicolas’ decision to challenge an incumbent governor in 2022 foreshadowed defeat. Every Guam governor had served for two terms.
In political campaigns, the advantages of incumbency are well entrenched. Such political edge is no mystery. Incumbents wield the powers of government, which serve as their campaign machinery. They have ready-made platforms, and their re-election campaigns are set in motion even before the election begins. Plus, donors are not known to switch bets.
Reelecting the incumbent to the House of Representatives is a political tradition that is not unique to Guam. It mirrors the trend in the national landscape. As the Center for Responsive Politics put it, “Few things in life are more predictable than the chances of an incumbent member of the U.S. House of Representatives winning reelection.”
A study by the Salt Lake Community College noted that in the past 20 years, “the lowest reelection rate for the House of Representatives was 85 percent, and the mean reelection rate is more than 94 percent.”
Just the same, Cruz gave Moylan a good fright. This year’s congressional race was the most animated campaign we can remember. Previous congressional elections on Guam have typically been subdued, almost like a monotonous routine.
In a post-election statement, Moylan acknowledged that Cruz “made this year’s elections exciting.”
That she did. After her long absence on Guam, Cruz popped back up on island and instantly became a household name. She had the most ubiquitous political signs splashed across the island, supplemented by an active social media presence and a grinding press release mill.
Cruz’s campaign was backed by a well-oiled political machine and a host of endorsers. For a newcomer, she is politically savvy, eclipsing Moylan’s muted campaign.
But perhaps Cruz’s assets might have been her own liabilities. Political endorsements don’t translate to victory when Guam voters cast their ballots. On the other hand, they tend to serve as a kiss of death if endorsements come from the politicians whom voters rejected in previous elections. Her well-crafted campaign exuded traditional politics that voters seem to be wary of.
At any rate, congressional continuity may not be so bad for Guam. One of the key advantages of congressional incumbency is the familiarity with the territory’s needs and expectations. It minimizes policy disruptions.
The House of Representatives resembles a social club, where territorial delegates lack voting power. House members don’t always understand Guam’s issues, but they are more likely to vote for their “buddies.” House members often represent districts that have been deliberately gerrymandered to include voting blocs that support incumbents.
Moylan has planted the seeds with several policy considerations that will reemerge in the next Congress’ deliberations. And with a Republican majority in both houses of Congress and a Republican president in the White House, Guam might have a better chance at influencing congressional decisions.
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