Life goes on: For Taiwanese, China’s threats of invasion are a part of life
- Admin
- Jul 7
- 5 min read
Updated: Jul 21
By Mar-Vic Cagurangan
Ramping up its military pressure on Taiwan, China reportedly deployed two aircraft carrier groups and dozens of ships in waters around the self-ruled island in May. Beijing's recent muscular posturing was preceded by Chinese President Xi Jinping's New Year's Eve threat over Taiwan: "No one can stop the reunification," his euphemism for invasion.
China's aggression raises global alarm and keeps the Taiwanese armed forces on their toes. Taiwanese civilians, however, shrug off the alarm bells. No one is stockpiling consumer supplies. No one is looking to flee the island. No one is building a safety shelter. For them, the ongoing Chinese threat of invasion is a part of life they have learned to live with.
"I'm not saying that there is no strong threat from mainland China. There is actually an enormous threat from the other side of the Taiwan Strait, and our government is taking it very seriously," said Wen-Chieh Liang, deputy minister of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council.
Liang attributed the Taiwanese people's seeming indifference to "historical issues," which entailed decades of threats that have not materialized.
China and Taiwan were politically divorced in 1949, when the Kuomintang, which had ruled both, fled to the island. The Communist Party took control of the mainland and established China's present-day regime.
China maintains that Taiwan is a breakaway province, while Taiwan considers itself an independent nation. Every Chinese leader has since threatened to retake Taiwan by military force.
"So because of historical issues from 1949 onward, Taiwanese people are basically living under the threat of mainland China, and they kind of get used to it," Liang said, describing the Taiwanese attitude toward the situation as a "double-edged sword."
"On the good side, Taiwanese people can dedicate themselves to our economy. For example, we are seeing the booming stock markets of Taiwan," he said. "On the bad side, it can be said that Taiwanese people do not have this kind of awareness of threat."
While the Taiwanese may not be paralyzed by fear, a think tank's survey indicated that they are not exactly oblivious.
"More than 60 percent of our respondents say that China is the most important threat facing Taiwan," said Kuan-Chen Lee, associate research fellow at the Institute of National Defense and Security Research. "When we asked another question about invasion, only about one-fourth of our respondents think that 'it's very possible' or 'somewhat possible.' So my interpretation of this result is that people in Taiwan are fully aware of the threat from China, but they don't think this threat is imminent."
There has been speculation that the People's Liberation Army would invade Taiwan before 2027. According to Francois Chihchung, Taiwan's deputy foreign minister, the conjecture about the supposed year of China's attack was based on the centennial anniversary of the modernization of the Chinese army, which was created in 1927.
"This is why the world is saying that before 2027, China may try to achieve something to show that their army has a better capability to conquer Taiwan before 2027," Chihchung said.
But "not today," he said, articulating Taiwan's deterrence policy—similar to the U.S. military's "Today is Not the Day."
Taiwan leverages its critical role in global chip supply chains, often referred to as its "silicon shield." "With our high technology, of course, we try to keep contact with the world, working with the world to protect our democracy," he said.
But Lee noted that the Taiwanese people must calibrate their lacking sense of urgency. "From a military or security perspective, I think our government should raise the perception of ordinary people," he said.
Liang agrees that China's threat can't be dismissed. "We've seen individuals approaching the coastline of Taiwan with ships. We've seen more and more of these kinds of incidents from January to May this year. So we are conducting an investigation to see if these incidents are CCP-backed," he said.
While Taiwan does not want to engage in a war with China, Liang said the government takes precautions and is aware of its weaknesses. "The vulnerabilities are real," he said. "We are sparing no effort to address our vulnerabilities."
Taiwan, for instance, has implemented trade restrictions on China, citing concerns over national security and industrial development. "In the past, there was extensive trade and investments between Taiwan and China," Liang said. "In 2013, 85 percent of Taiwan's outbound investments went to China. The number has since dropped to 7.5 percent."
Liang said China's increasing interest in Taiwan is proportionate to its growing military. "I think in the beginning, when Xi just assumed office, he didn't have a very clear plan when it comes to Taiwan. As China grows its military power, Beijing authorities think that they can conduct this kind of reckless military exercises in the Taiwan Straits."
Learning from Ukraine during the initial phase of the Russian invasion, Taiwan would tap its civilian volunteers for a multi-layered deterrence and train them on how to defend the island if China were to attack, according to Ming-Shih Shen, a research fellow at the Institute of National Defense.
Shen predicts China's attack to commence with "quarantine or blockade" before launching a full-scale invasion.
"Right now, Taiwan's special operation troops and our 'whole society defense resilience' are also talking about this. We started war gaming in December last year and we also did some in March," Shen said. "We also prepare for wartime, planning how the local government will cooperate with the military and with the central government to prevent China from landing an operation or maybe entering the city, how to defend and how to win."
But for how long? Again, looking at Ukraine, Shen said Taiwan may anticipate a prolonged war. "Maybe it will end in one week, or last more than 1,000 days, right? Taiwan has to think about that. This is important because a prolonged war is not easy; it's very difficult for the civilian people."
Can Taiwan expect war assistance from the United States?
Although Washington sells arms to Taiwan, the Trump administration's moods can be unpredictable.
"It's very hard to understand the real attitude of the Trump administration toward China and Taiwan," Liang said.
The U.S. has complex triangular relations with China and Taiwan. While maintaining friendly ties with Taipei by virtue of the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States abides by the one-China policy.
At the same time, however, Washington skates on thin ice with its relations with Beijing, which it considers "the most challenging competitor" in the Indo-Pacific region.
Home to 23 million people, Taiwan is situated in what is known as the "first island chain," a region comprising U.S.-friendly territories that are crucial to U.S. foreign policy.
At this point, Taiwan may have to rely on self-defense. “Right now, we have our own missile system. TK-2, TK-3 and even TK-4 also have a function of missile defense,” Shen said. “And then, our Navy ships also have their own weapons system.”
Subscribe ti
our digital
monthly edition
