CNMI’s stability and security anchored on US support, not Beijing influence
- Admin
- 2 hours ago
- 4 min read
By Bryan Manabat
Saipan—Growing speculation over Chinese Communist Party influence in the Northern Mariana Islands has prompted renewed attention to the region’s geopolitical alignment. But one fact remains clear: the CNMI’s economic survival and strategic future are firmly tied to its partnership with the United States—not Beijing.
While China expanded its presence in the Pacific through tourism, business ventures and soft diplomacy, its footprint in the CNMI remains limited and largely symbolic. In contrast, the U.S. federal government continues to provide the bulk of economic relief, infrastructure funding and public services that sustain the islands. From disaster recovery and Medicaid to education grants and food assistance, federal support is the cornerstone of the CNMI’s resilience.
The U.S. Department of War reinforces this commitment through its strategic presence and long-term planning. The CNMI Joint Military Training initiative on Tinian—currently under environmental review—represents a multi-year investment in regional security and local development. Central to this is the Tinian Divert Airfield, a multimillion-dollar project designed to expand U.S. air operations in the Western Pacific and serve as a backup to Andersen Air Force Base in Guam.
The project is expected to boost regional mobility, disaster response and joint training, while generating construction jobs and long-term economic activity on Tinian.
The U.S. Air Force is also seeking to lease approximately 80,000 square meters of land at Rota Airport for the construction of six warehouses.
Cleo Paskal, a Pacific security analyst, warns that China’s tactics in the Pacific often involve “political warfare”—leveraging economic incentives, strategic corruption and disinformation to undermine U.S. partnerships.
In the CNMI, such efforts have met resistance from a population that values transparency, rule of law and the constitutional protections guaranteed under U.S. sovereignty.
Grant Newsham, a retired U.S. Marine officer and a former U.S. diplomat, noted that China combines soft diplomacy with power display, as shown by the People’s Liberation Army’s display of its advanced weapons during a victory parade in September. “This particular parade was all about intimidation, but also the United States and its allies and friends,” Newsham said.
He recommended that the U.S. also develop a political warfare capability to block China's political warfare efforts in the CNMI.
“Chinese organized crime and influence need to be eradicated,” said Newsham, a senior fellow with the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. “This requires going after corruption on Guam and CNMI that the Chinese capitalize on and even expand as a way to break the societies apart and to create pro-China constituencies in the local business and elite classes to push for China's interests.”
But even in the wake of the Chinese-linked casino venture Imperial Pacific International—whose operations collapsed amid federal investigations and bankruptcy—the U.S. justice system has responded with indictments and legal proceedings, reinforcing the strength of American institutions in holding bad actors accountable.
Recent scrutiny of the CNMI’s visa waiver program has reignited concerns over Chinese influence. Federal lawmakers have raised alarms about Chinese nationals entering the CNMI without visas and then traveling by boat to Guam to seek asylum or economic opportunity. Some have gone so far as to label these individuals as potential spies.
Newsham criticized the visa-free policy, calling it “one such ‘pro-Chinese’ effort being pushed by local elites.”
He warns that Chinese organized crime and the Chinese Communist Party’s United Front Works Department take advantage of this scheme. “And allowing Chinese casinos to operate in CNMI is not just risky; it's stupid,” Newsham said.
“It's the ground zero for Chinese subversion efforts that can undercut the U.S. military's efforts to bolster its position in the region. We need to relearn political warfare immediately.”
But local immigration experts have pushed back. Attorney Janet King, who has represented many of these migrants, said they are “ordinary people, often desperate people… wanting a better life is not a crime.”
Robert Underwood, chair of the Pacific Center for Island Security, cautioned against conflating economic migration with espionage. His think tank focuses on the geopolitical dynamics of Pacific island communities amid U.S.-China competition and regional militarization.
The CNMI’s reliance on tourism—driven by its geographic isolation and limited natural resources—adds another layer to the conversation. Chinese tourists have historically contributed to the islands’ hospitality sector and local leaders recognize the importance of maintaining an open tourism market.
Local officials and business leaders, however, maintained that economic pragmatism does not equate to political compromise. Seeking tourists from China, they said, is tied to the goal of responsible growth within the framework of U.S. law and values.
The CNMI’s allegiance, of course, is with the U.S.
And allegiance comes with dependence and expectations, which are especially evident in times of crisis. Facing a severe budget shortfall in 2025, Gov. David Apatang and CNMI leaders turned to the U.S. Department of the Interior for emergency assistance. That decision underscored both practical necessity and enduring trust in the U.S. system.
As global competition broadens, reaffirming the CNMI’s alignment with the United States is not just a matter of loyalty. It’s a matter of survival. When it comes to economic stability, public safety and strategic investment, the United States remains the CNMI’s indispensable partner. Strengthening that bond is essential to securing the islands’ future, not entertaining illusions of foreign influence. (With additional reports from Mar-Vic Cagurangan)
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