Change of course? US sending mixed signals in the Pacific region

View from the West By James C. Pearce

 Republicans of old are all a little perplexed about something lately: national defense. It was once a pet issue for the neo-conservative Bush and Reagan administrations. Old-school Republicans (and Democrats) used to prioritize security in the Pacific region like clockwork. During his first term, Donald Trump referred to China as America’s number one enemy.

Now, the focus seems to be on threats within, and China is absolutely grinning.

A draft of the newest National Defense Strategy, which landed on the desk of Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s desk last month, places domestic and regional missions above countering adversaries such as Beijing and Moscow, according to three people briefed on early versions of the report.

The draft comes as thousands of National Guard troops were deployed to American cities, fighter jets patrol the Caribbean for drug smuggling and 11 people suspected of being Venezuelan gang members were killed in a military strike.

People briefed on the document told Politico that it questioned the old U.S. promises. Listen to those old-school Republicans, and it defies imagination.

What America worked decades to achieve could be undone in the next three years. While Trump’s rhetoric on China remains tough, he has also declined to commit to defending Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. Many within the administration, including Vice President J.D. Vance, want to untangle America from its foreign commitments. Another is Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s policy chief, who is leading the strategy. He played a key role in writing the 2018 version during Trump’s first term and has been a staunch supporter of a more isolationist American policy. 

Colby’s policy team is also responsible for a forthcoming global posture review, which outlines the locations of U.S. forces around the globe, and a theater air and missile defense review, which assesses the air defenses of the U.S. and its allies and makes recommendations on the location of American systems. The Pentagon is expected to release both reviews in October.

Europeans are especially concerned as the U.S. appears poised to scale back its commitments there. Some in the Middle East are also jittering. But the Indo-Pacific must also worry, given that Trump has yet to say much about its security.

China is already the dominant economic partner for many small Pacific nations. U.S. officials claim China would like to station military forces there, too. China is said to have privileged access to ports and airfields in at least five countries. Its ships and planes are visiting more often.

Having a permanent military base would allow the communist regime to boss these countries around far more.

Australia and New Zealand believe China would have already installed a military base in the Solomon Islands had it not been for their efforts to stop it. The 2022 security agreement between China and the Solomon Islands caused regional anxiety, prompting Australia to work hard to slow Beijing's progress in the island nation.

Only three Pacific countries have armed police forces, allowing for joint exercises with China, which has its own police on the ground in the Solomon Islands, Kiribati and Vanuatu.

But not all Pacific nations are vulnerable to China. Most of Micronesia, Melanesia and Polynesia still look to Australia, New Zealand and the U.S. as beacons of hope.

The U.S. has played a major role in blocking China’s ambitions in the region. However, it now appears to be hedging its bets by walking away. It is a risky strategy that alienates key partners in the region, causing them to rethink their alliances.

Trump’s tariffs on India have only pushed it closer to its old ally, Russia. John Bolton has claimed Putin is playing Trump like a fiddle. Perhaps India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi likes it that way.

It has also made India more reluctant to act against China. More so, India’s military is much happier when it focuses on Pakistan. About 90 percent of its intelligence service is dedicated to spying on its Muslim neighbor. If pushed further, India may decide it needs to give itself a Pacific headache.

Finally, there is the worrying aspect of a more militarized Department of War. What does that mean for the state of America’s democracy?

Whether America’s democracy survives or not, China will keep trying its luck in the Pacific. It is watching closely and is America’s backyard to lose.

Dr. James C. Pearce previously worked at the University of Liverpool and the College of the Marshall Islands, and lived in Russia for almost a decade. He is the author of “The Use of History in Putin's Russia”, and has written on Russian memory politics, historical narratives, education policy and historical anniversaries. Send feedback to jcpearce.91@gmail.com.

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