Tuvalu’s first climate refugees in Australia will be a test case for how governments will handle displacements
- Admin
- 28 minutes ago
- 4 min read
By James C. Pearce
Australia is due to receive the world’s first officially recognized climate refugees in 2026. They will arrive at a time when the country’s far right is insurgent and climate change threatens the existence of Pacific nations.
Tuvalu’s climate refugees will arrive under the Falepili Union treaty signed in 2023. From 2026, a maximum of 280 Tuvaluans can permanently migrate to Australia each year to live, study and work. A third of next year’s arrivals are from Tuvalu and the rest from diaspora communities.
For Tuvaluans, Australia’s climate visa is a passport to survival. With a tiny population of around 11,000 people, Tuvalu faces the risk of being swallowed by rising seas due to climate change.
The small number of migrants will be a test case for how Pacific governments can respond when climate change drives displacement. They are a pioneering effort to separate statehood from territory.
Under international law, sovereign nations need a permanent population on clearly defined territory. However, Tuvalu has negotiated a treaty, saying that even if it loses its physical territory to rising seas, it will retain its U.N. vote and its vast exclusive economic zone, a tuna-rich patch of ocean that sustains its budget.
So far, 25 countries, including Australia and New Zealand, have recognized the new definition of sovereignty. It comes against the risk of hollowing out institutions and losing rich cultural heritage that has defined the Pacific nations for thousands of years.
Securing the support of additional countries—particularly in Europe and especially the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council—will require substantial effort. China, Russia and the U.S. have no reason to agree to this, especially as big polluters. In Europe, nationhood and sovereignty have very particular connotations of blood, soil, strife and ethnicity.
The first climate refugees will arrive in Australia at a very delicate time. Australia has not escaped the populist wave on the political right. Traditionally run by the center-left Labor and center-right National Liberal Coalition, the political landscape is now being challenged by a new far-right party: One Nation.
One Nation has enjoyed only limited electoral success since its foundation in 1997. Its platform is a mixture of economic populism and overt race-baiting targeting Asians, Muslims, Aboriginals and Pacific islanders.
Thirty years ago, its leader, Sen. Pauline Hanson, gave her maiden speech in Australia’s parliament, only to rail against Aboriginal rights, warning that Australia was at risk of being “swamped by Asians.”
Today, one in three people in Australia was born overseas—millions of them in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. It is a multicultural and ethnic society, often famed for its tolerance, harmony and liberalism. It is one of many reasons Australia was the ideal place for such a trial agreement.
As 2026 unfolds, however, there are strong indications that One Nation is gaining mainstream appeal. Some polls suggest that almost one in six Australians would vote for it if an election were held today, up from only about one in 20 in June 2025. The high cost of living has caused immigration anxiety among many Australians. If the Tuvalu deal failed, it could play further into One Nation’s hands.
The Liberal-National coalition, now leading Australia’s opposition, has been shedding conservative voters to One Nation. Immigration and culture issues are not the sole cause of its growing popularity, particularly in rural areas. Dysfunction and infighting inside Australia’s center-right is making it harder for more sophisticated diagnoses of Australia’s problems to be heard, as noted by The Economist.
For all its deep flaws, One Nation has been consistent in its messaging to Australian voters.
Hanson went viral last year when she went into the chamber wearing a burqa, a Muslim garment that covers the entire head, face and body; it is compulsory in Afghanistan under Taliban rule.
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It was the second time in a decade that Hanson had pulled such a stunt in parliament. On both occasions, the stunt sought to publicize her long-running campaign to have such face-coverings banned in public places.
Last year, her actions resulted in a weeklong suspension from the Senate and widespread condemnation from fellow politicians and community leaders. They accused Hanson of vilifying Australia’s Muslims, who make up about 3 percent of the nation's population.
Only a tiny number of Muslim women in Australia actually wear a full veil, be it the niqab or burqa. With One Nation surging and the climate refugees waiting to board flights and boats to their new, permanent home, fears of violence are gripping politicians and the public alike.
There are several reasons for optimism, though. Australia’s system of preferential voting presents a massive obstacle to the One Nation party ever forming a government. Even if its fortunes continue to improve, it would take a near-total collapse of the Liberal-National coalition for the party to break through. Moreover, Australians overwhelmingly back action on climate change—as high as 70 percent—and see immigration positively.
Tuvalu’s first climate refugees should not worry just yet. They should get on with living and prove One Nation wrong.
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