The old order is fading and so is American leadership

Pacific Reflections By Robert Underwood

We live in an uncertain and dangerous world. Our islands are not inherently dangerous, but we face several challenges, some due to our location and others due to our collective ineptitude. We must admit that we sometimes don’t do a good job of managing our places. But the real existential dangers and uncertainty come from forces beyond our control. Since the beginning of this year, this world has been even more uncertain and dangerous.

Historically, the great powers have been trying to out-position each other in our part of the world. Since World War II, the United States has been the key player and held the best position in any geostrategic competition for our island homes.

For much of that time, we were just platform islands from which American power could be projected to real battlefields. For most of Micronesia, just denying potential adversaries—as in, “strategic denial”—was sufficient.

But in the past few years, Chinese military capabilities and a robust economic agenda changed the paradigm so that the islands themselves are now contemplated to be areas of real, kinetic conflict. Guam isn’t just the tip of the spear, it has become a primary target. The surrounding islands are no longer islands of denial. They inhabit a huge area for training and, through distribute-and-disperse initiatives, are themselves becoming co-targets.

Micronesia is undergoing a potentially hazardous process of “strategic reclamation,” as outlined by Ken Kuper in his May 2024 article, titled “From Strategic Denial to Strategic Reclamation,” posted on the Security in Context website. This appeared to be the general direction in military planning and U.S. initiatives in our part of the world.

There is a lot to unpack as America sought to exercise its power and influence primarily through the military. It could be called “peace through strength,” but it just seems to be a one-trick pony.

In the past three months, the military coherence of “peace through strength” has been blunted by confusion, economic uncertainty and a gutting of the “soft power” (i.e., diplomatic) initiatives formally utilized by the United States. Peace through the Peace Corps is a fading memory.

American leadership in the world has been severely hampered by the current leadership. The Trump administration is marked by incompetence and corruption. The corruption at the top, which is interested in enriching themselves and their friends, is matched by the selection of incompetent leadership of the country’s major agencies.

America's well-being is being harmed by ignorant health policy initiatives coming out of the White House and Health and Human Services. The victims here are children with measles, cancer research and anyone who takes prescription drugs. That just about includes everyone.

The law enforcement policies and practices are being led by people who ignore court decisions. They shoot first and ask questions later. The victims of these policies include immigrants or those who practice the wrong kind of free speech. At the top level, no self-restraint or self-awareness is evident in the Department of Justice or federal law enforcement agencies. If there are any, they are either quickly removed or silenced through intimidation.

Pacific island immigrants are now worried about their status in the United States, while COFA migrants are updating their I-94s. There is real fear and consternation.

The impact of this incompetent and incoherent leadership manifests in the confusion about the standing of American leadership in the world. 

The Trump tariff agenda is designed to “protect” American interests, or so we are told. But the erratic nature of this policy reveals not only a misunderstanding about the nature of American interests in the world economy,

but also provides an opportunity for corruption and influence peddling. Protecting their cronies' industries while declaring war on the world economy seems to be the Trump administration's specialty. Hence, exemptions will be made.

The United States is losing friends around the world, and that confidence in American leadership is being sacrificed. American friends are now keen on protecting their own economies in response to Trump’s initiatives. American corporate and consumer interests have combined to expose Trump's tough-guy approach. The result is that he has “chickened out,” in the words of the Chinese.

Military relationships may appear stronger as shown in the Balikatan exercises in the Philippines last month, but the emphasis there is about flexing military muscles.

Today, America is weaker in the world than it was last year. This may not be proportionally reflected in the island Pacific, but there is much confusion.

While its influence has declined in Europe, the U.S. is making plans to abandon Africa and has made enemies of neighbors like Mexico and Canada.

In the past two years, we heard about President Biden’s Pacific engagement initiatives, such as the two summits with island leaders at the White House. Plans for increased assistance on climate change, the establishment of new embassies and the use of “soft power” have been removed from the White House and other federal websites and cancelled altogether. Some Pacific leaders used to say America was “late” to the party. Now, the U.S. may not even care to attend any party.

While it might have been easy to criticize Biden’s initiatives, at least his administration devoted some attention to islanders. The Pacific islands got the National Security Council’s Kurt Campbell and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas Greenfield. Today, we get Defense Secretary Hegseth stopping over on Guam and meeting with some Pacific island leaders close to the United States. 

Rep. Amata Radewagen, American Samoa’s delegate to Congress, has proposed a Pacific Island Charter, which talks about a vision for freedom and prosperity to unite free nations. We are all for that.

Last month, the Heritage Foundation praised the proposal as a way to counter China’s rising threat. The problem is that the U.S. is shutting down diplomatic relationships with free nations and ignoring climate change. The Trump administration dismisses climate change as a “hoax.” The proposed charter may end up building more militarized relationships rather than people-to-people initiatives.

The Trump administration is doing its best to change the old world, which had a “rules-based order.” In the old world, the United States’ dominance was commensurate with its economic and military power, intellectual capacity and leadership. This has been true since the end of World War II.  Today, the U.S. economy faces a recession and has effectively declared economic war on most of the world.

Trump’s initiatives undercut the American universities’ intellectual and research capacity. The military, which is touted as the bulwark of tough American leadership for the future, is led by amateurs. The professionals are either being ignored or weeded out of the Pentagon.

Tough talk replaces intelligent conversation, and “shut up” is the response to appeals for personal freedom. It doesn’t seem like an auspicious time for American leadership.

Dr. Robert Underwood is the former president of the University of Guam and a former member of the U.S. House of Representatives. Send feedback to anacletus2010@gmail.com.

The opinions expressed here are solely the author’s and do not reflect the editorial position of the Pacific Island Times.

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