New Caledonia has more guns than almost anywhere else on Earth

What does that mean for self-governance dreams?

By Sheridan Ward

(The Interpreter/Lowy Institiute)-- New Caledonia has four times more guns per capita than any of the island nations of the Pacific. Globally, the French territory also ranks third in the world for civilian gun ownership after Yemen and the United States. This is an anomaly in one of the world’s most peaceful regions – although New Caledonia has itself been one of the flashpoints for conflict.

Without universal registration or incentives to register, accurate figures for the number of guns in circulation remain elusive. 

A French government report from April last year suggested there are approximately 100,000 weapons in New Caledonia, including 64,000 registered for hunting and sporting, which amounts to roughly 37 per 100 people. The French High Commission in 2022 estimated up to 128,000 unregistered guns in addition (71.1 per 100 people), which is consistent with earlier surveys.

The Pacific typically features low firearm rates. Bougainville in nearby Papua New Guinea saw arms surrendered in the early 2000s following a peace deal. A similar handback scheme followed the RAMSI intervention in neighboring Solomon Islands.

But at a rate potentially as high as 71.1 guns per 100 citizens, New Caledonia maintains nearly four times the gun ownership level of its nearest regional contenders – Guam (11.5 per 100), Samoa (10.1) and Tonga (8.0). Every other Pacific nation reports fewer than 4 guns per 100 people. Globally, the average is 9.8.

Hunting and sport shooting have long traditions in New Caledonia. Guns are used for pest control – feral deer and pigs in particular – and by pastoralists managing large herds. Local hunting for self-consumption is common and culturally significant for both Kanak (Indigenous) and Caldoche (French settler) communities. However, hunting alone does not explain or justify the territory’s elevated firearm ownership.

Gun laws in New Caledonia have been on a rollercoaster over the past two decades. Before 2011, applications for gun ownership had to be submitted to and approved by the French High Commission or the police, a process that took months.

Then, in 2011, gun laws were liberalized. There were no longer any limits on how many guns an individual could own, provided they had a valid ID, hunting licence, and a medical certificate proving mental and physical fitness. Sales skyrocketed. France responded by proposing a cap of four guns per person, prompting another sales spike.

New Caledonia presently uses a system called AGRIPPA for weapons registration, which tracks the owner when a weapon changes hands. However, it has had limited success, with just 5,000 weapons registered this year.

A new program, Système d’Information des Armes is currently being rolled out to bring New Caledonia into compliance with European requirements for traceability of weapons. Unlike AGRIPPA, SIA tracks the firearm itself from registration through every transfer until its destruction. It is already operational in France but not yet fully functional in New Caledonia.

The provinces in New Caledonia oversee their own hunting laws and permits, and the High Commission is presently in conversations with the provinces to introduce a mandatory safety exam for firearm purchases.

Prospective hunters will also need to join a rifle club and be certified before purchasing ammunition.

Current regulations limit citizens to 50 bullets per month, regardless of how many firearms they own.

Some locals are sceptical of these restrictions. Rather than encouraging compliance, tighter rules may drive more people away from registration. One Kanak man admitted to owning three unregistered guns, and knows of several other unregistered guns owned by his brothers and cousins. As permits become harder to obtain, fewer people are likely to bother – especially with a thriving black market.

Twelve-gauge shotguns are the most common illegal firearms, capable of bringing down game or birds. They’re widely available on the black market for between 25,000 and 120,000 francs (A$372–$1,785). As for ammunition restrictions, they’re said to have had little effect.

Locals bullets are easily sourced through family members with permits or the black market.

Black market access has expanded since May 2024 when political unrest erupted with riots in the capital Noumea.

Authorities banned all firearm transportation from May to October, including carrying weapons in private vehicles for hunting purposes. Legitimate armouries were forced to close for five months as the economic crisis took hold, with an estimated third of licensed firearms dealers shutting permanently.

Looting during the riots also saw stolen weapons pawned on the black market.

Political moves in recent days have opened a potential new chapter in New Caledonia, with a draft agreement outlining electoral reforms and the creation of a “state” within France.

The new agreement would establish a New Caledonian nationality and initiate the gradual transfer of sovereign powers, covering foreign affairs, security, and justice. It could also lead to changes in the territory’s name, anthem, currency, and flag, if desired. A referendum to validate this agreement is scheduled to take place in February 2026.

Hefty concessions were made on both sides of the negotiation table. However, voting eligibility could remain a flashpoint, particularly with long-term settlement and immigration making local Kanaks a demographic minority. The violent riots that erupted last year graphically illustrated the potential for conflict – and with so many weapons in the territory, it makes for a combustible mix.

With this month’s agreement, the issue of gun registration takes on a larger meaning. It is no longer just about crime or hunting. It is about governance.

Managing a transition to self-rule will involve establishing accountability, maintaining working registries, and earning citizens’ trust.

One key test is whether it can convince citizens, many of whom view their weapons as protection against marginalisation or violence, to register their firearms. The future of the territory will depend on its ability to foster unity and ensure domestic stability. Without control over the tools of violence, sovereignty may prove fragile.

If universal firearm registration is the goal, New Caledonia will need to provide incentives. Gun buy-back schemes or registration benefits could help.

By contrast, increased barriers, such as compulsory safety exams and mandatory rifle club membership, may drive people away and expand the black market. Enforcing laws is not enough.

The challenge is to build public confidence that the state, not the gun, offers the best form of protection.

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