Guam’s 3.1% unemployment rate is a pretty fib

By Joseph Arriola

The administration is bragging about Guam’s unemployment rate dropping to 3.1 percent, like it’s some kind of economic miracle.

Let’s stop pretending. That number isn’t a victory — it’s a warning flare. It’s the kind of statistic politicians wave around when they’re hoping you don’t ask what’s happening underneath.

And underneath, it’s not strength. It’s shrinkage, dependency, and a whole lot of people quietly leaving because they can’t afford to stay.

Let’s start with the obvious: our labor force is smaller. That’s the part nobody in power wants to say out loud. When families pack up for the mainland, when parents can’t find childcare, when elders need care at home, when people get sick and never make it back into the workforce, the unemployment rate drops automatically. Not because we created opportunity, but because we lost people.

A shrinking denominator makes the percentage look cute. But it doesn’t change the fact that Guam is bleeding working‑age residents.

Then there’s tourism. Yes, it “recovered.” But let’s be real — we didn’t build anything new. We just reopened the same jobs we lost. We’re still stuck in the same one‑engine economy we’ve been riding since the 1970s. A rebound is not innovation. It’s not diversification. It’s not progress. It’s just getting back to where we were before everything collapsed. And even then, we’re still not at 2019 levels.

Now let’s talk about the real reason unemployment is low: federal construction money. Billions of dollars in DOD projects are pumping life into the island — temporarily. Construction, engineering, trucking, logistics — all booming because Washington opened the faucet.

But let’s not fool ourselves. This isn’t Guam’s economic engine. It’s a rental. And when the contract ends, the jobs end. If your unemployment rate depends on someone else’s timeline, someone else’s budget, someone else’s priorities, then you don’t have an economy. You have a dependency with a deadline.

GovGuam remains Guam’s largest and most stable employer, often attracting workers when private sector jobs are scarce. However, this reliance creates an imbalance; while government job growth lowers unemployment, it also undermines long-term economic resilience, as a sustainable future requires more than just payroll expansion.

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So, let’s stop acting like 3.1 percent unemployment means families are thriving. It doesn’t. It doesn’t fix the cost of living. It doesn’t fix housing. It doesn’t fix stagnant wages. It doesn’t fix the fact that our young people are leaving because they see no future here.

A low unemployment rate without real economic growth is just a pretty fib. And Guam deserves better than pretty fibs.

If we want something worth celebrating, let’s build an economy where people stay because they can, not because they have no choice. Until then, 3.1 percent isn’t a success story.

Joseph B.D. Arriola is a resident of Dededo.

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