The numbers don’t care who wins: Why the CNMI is in perpetual search for economic solution

Live from Saipan By Zaldy Dandan

 Saipan — About two years ago, the then-governor of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands predicted that the local economy would finally improve around this time, thanks to his policies. Instead, the economy got worse. Much worse.

Back then, no one could have foreseen everything we would eventually endure: global uncertainty, wars, typhoons and other unfortunate events.

But it is also true that many politicians and voters tend to overestimate their ability to solve long-standing problems, while often underestimating their complexity.

A knowledge of history and economics is invaluable for any politician. Yet those who possess such knowledge are usually the least eager to enter politics, knowing full well what they will be up against.

In the CNMI, the main problem, then and now, is that the government spends more than it collects. This is not a major issue when the economy is booming, but it becomes a crisis—as it is now—when the economy is shrinking.

Today, there is widespread public dissatisfaction, mainly because the government cannot afford to provide what many voters believe is their due, if not their right.

That is the real issue. The rest is hooey.

Without an economic boom or a massive federal bailout, the only way to somewhat fix the CNMI government’s financial problem is to reduce costs, which usually means pay cuts and/or layoffs, a measure that affects the islands’ largest voting bloc: government employees.

Many candidates for office, then and now, have declared themselves in favor of downsizing or “right-sizing” government. In practice, that often means laying off those who did not support the winning party and giving their jobs to those who did.

Then and now, we hear manifestos and plans that promise to “get to the root of the problem,” build a “more sustainable” economy and establish a “clean government.” Many politicians say things they assume have never been said or thought before.

Time and again, measures—many of which have already been tried—are proposed and sometimes enacted, only to produce the same results or create new, and sometimes even worse, problems.

Many of us fail to recognize a simple reality we experience every day in our interactions with other people: we will never agree with one another completely, on every issue, all the time. Yet many “enlightened” public policies would work well only if everyone thought and acted the same way.

Government assistance, for example, is intended to be a temporary safety net. Yet many recipients have turned it into a permanent crutch. In the CNMI’s case, government is expected to provide stipends and other assistance, including off-island referrals for medical patients. Health officials complain that many individuals still do not have health insurance and blame poverty for this unfortunate situation. Ask those individuals, however, and more often than not, they’ll say, “Why pay for insurance when I already get free healthcare from the hospital?”

Government jobs and contracts are supposedly awarded on merit, yet they often go to the well-connected. Then and now, that remains one of the main reasons people get involved in politics or support politicians: to obtain those jobs or contracts. And those who succeed will usually say they are in it to serve the people.

Sure.

But serve them how? Mainly by making them even more dependent on government largesse, which many voters demand anyway: good-paying government jobs, free education, free healthcare, subsidized utilities, paved roads, low-priced consumer goods, affordable airfare, top-notch telecommunications and a rapid response to natural disasters.

Who’s paying for all these goodies? “Don’t look at me,” says the voter. “Go after the rich. Or Uncle Sam.”

There is another reason I believe meaningful change is so difficult to achieve: the CNMI is not a nation. It is a territory of the United States, which has 50 states, four other inhabited territories and the world’s most dynamic economy. The CNMI’s local residents are American citizens.

Instead of racking their brains trying to devise “solutions,” wading into the muddy waters of politics, soliciting votes, making deals and promising whatever remains of the moon and stars that previous candidates have not already pledged—people can simply leave and head to the States. They can, in short, vote with their feet.

Of course, there are still concerned citizens—and I mean that without irony— who are staying, hoping to make a difference. More power to them.

But consider this. The last time the CNMI proposed a budget that could reasonably satisfy most people was in 2018 for fiscal year 2019. It totaled $258.1 million, equivalent to about $344.29 million today. Then Super Typhoon Yutu struck. After that came Covid-19 and the global travel restrictions that devastated tourism, effects that are still being felt today.

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Last month, Gov. David Apatang said that, in light of the steep decline in revenue collections, he was reducing the government’s FY 2027 revenue forecast from $101.8 million to $97.2 million, the lowest level since the early 1980s.

Meanwhile, many businesses continue to downsize or shut their doors. Residents and workers continue to leave. The tourism industry still has a long road to full recovery. Politicians are still peddling quick fixes.

Perhaps the greatest obstacle to meaningful change is not a lack of ideas but our reluctance to accept unpleasant realities. Until voters demand candor rather than comforting promises, politicians will continue to supply what voters want to hear. And the CNMI will continue searching for solutions to problems that cannot be solved by politics alone.

Zaldy Dandan is the editor of the CNMI’s oldest — and only remaining — newspaper, Marianas Variety. His fourth book, “If He Isn’t Insane Then He Should Be: Stories & Poems from Saipan,” is available on amazon.com/.

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