The fault line of Pacific security: Climate-driven land loss triggers regional crisis

By Jayvee Vallejera

In Majuro, the capital of the Marshall Islands, flooding from rising sea levels now affects 30 percent of the city's urban areas every year. The Enewetak Atoll, which has a concrete dome containing nuclear waste, is beginning to show cracks due to rising sea levels. Reports say Enewetak now faces flooding twice as often as in 2020.

In the Solomon Islands, Nuatambu has already lost half of its habitable area since 2011.

Inch by inch, year after year, the sea levels across the Pacific are rising, forcing island communities to abandon family homes and move to safer grounds. Lands are being washed away by climate-led change, eroding the very foundations of peace and stability.

Experts warn this daily reality, driving a modern crisis of land loss and the forced removal of people from traditional homelands, could trigger widespread conflict if left unaddressed.

A new policy paper, titled "Land: a Faultline for Pacific Peace and Security?" released by Pacific Security College, has a warning for regional leaders.

 The author, Anna Naupa, a senior research and engagement fellow at the college, pointed out that land governance has been dangerously ignored in regional security strategies. This neglect has resulted in a policy vacuum at a time when climate change is accelerating the destruction of sovereign territories.

At the heart of this crisis is the rapid physical deterioration of low-lying islands.

Naupa’s paper paints a grim picture of communities building makeshift seawalls and trying to reclaim land from a rising ocean. The damage, however, is not just the loss of territory. Land becomes saltier, making it unusable for farming and freshwater sources are ruined.

This environmental degradation is what’s driving “climate mobility.” Islanders are forced to evacuate due to environmental hazards. Whether that movement is temporary, permanent or internal relocation to a new area within a country’s own borders, this forced movement is deeply traumatic to Pacific peoples.

"Donor institutions, development banks, and regional policy frameworks routinely approach land as a resource," said Karen Mapusua, Director of the Land Resources Division at the Pacific Community. "Pacific peoples, however, have long understood land as something far more elemental: not as an asset to be exploited but the very ground of identity and belonging."

Akka Rimon, senior research fellow at the Pacific Security College, said the loss of land creates vulnerabilities. It severs the spiritual, relational and cultural connections that form the foundation of local societies, he said.

"As climate impacts intensify and mobility pressures rise, the region faces mounting challenges of land scarcity, contested tenure, and undermined sovereignty," Rimon said.

Disputes over who has the legal or traditional right to occupy and control specific pieces of land become even more intense, even as the nation itself grapples with weakened authority and control over its own borders.

Naupa warns the threat of land loss is not merely an environmental or emotional issue but a direct trigger for social unrest—civil disruptions, protests or violent communal conflicts.

Mapusua warns of the same threat to peace. Food insecurity and hunger are drivers of social unrest, she said. For example, across the region, farmers anecdotally report increasing theft of crops and livestock.

“When people cannot feed themselves and cannot afford healthy imported alternatives, the crisis is real,” Mapusua said.

Naupa warns these issues will only grow as climate change destroys arable land and food security becomes even more fragile.

In the past, regional bodies maintained a strong focus on human security, an approach to governance that prioritizes the health, safety and well-being of people rather than just the protection of state borders.

Land management policy used to be connected directly to regional peacemaking initiatives, Naupa said, but that focus faded in the 2010s.

Regional entities shifted their attention toward ocean governance, driven by the intense geopolitical competition between the United States and China. This is illustrated by the recent spike in interest in seabed mining, which has generated uproar across the Pacific.

Naupa posed a critical question to regional institutions: By focusing so heavily on maritime borders and global superpower dynamics, is regional security policy in danger of overlooking the land in favor of the sea?

To prevent widespread instability, Naupa’s paper suggests that regional frameworks must explicitly address land issues. Central to her recommendations is the integration of “plural land governance systems,” a hybrid system that balances both Western-style laws and traditional practices used by indigenous communities to manage shared tribal lands.

These traditional systems, Naupa said, are functional, living systems that actively manage everyday conflicts and hold communities together.

Navigating the pressures of climate displacement requires using these traditional systems to negotiate boundaries and share resources peacefully, she said.

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To achieve this, Naupa urged leaders to build on existing treaties, such as the Blue Pacific Ocean of Peace Declaration and the Boe Declaration on Regional Security, which redefines "security" to include environmental and human threats.

While these documents recognize the importance of culture, they require more specific policies linking land management directly to regional defense and peace planning.

Naupa also maps out several urgent actions to ensure land security becomes a central pillar of Pacific diplomacy, including using the upcoming development of the Regional Peace and Security Action Plan to codify the role of traditional land management systems in preserving social cohesion.

Vehia Wheeler, a Ma’ohi Nui scholar and cultural consultant, pointed out that the region has survived historical displacements caused by outside disruptions, such as nuclear testing.

"Without secure, healthy land and ocean space for people to practice traditional management, agriculture, and fishing, we create vulnerable societies," Wheeler said in a conversation with Naupa. "Our past can, and should, inform our future."

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