Pro-France coalition leads New Caledonia's vote but lacks majority

By James C. Pearce

New Caledonia's anti-independence coalition led the polls—but fell short of securing a majority—in the first election since the riots set the French territory ablaze in 2024.

Initial results released Sunday night showed the pro-French coalition clinched 24 of the 54 seats in thre Congress of New Caledonia, while the pro-independence parties collectively took a total of 26 seats, divided among three blocs.

That leaves the pro-French coalition four seats shy of a commanding majority.

L'Eveil oceanien, a small minority party representing one of the archipelago’s smaller communities won the remaining four and will become kingmakers.

The Congress of New Caledonia passes local laws and appoints the territory’s government. Elections, originally due in 2024, had been delayed repeatedly following that year’s riots amounting to mass controversy.

Pro-independence groups claimed it was Paris’ attempt not to lose an election. Around 2,400 police officers were deployed across the islands to make sure the vote went ahead peacefully.

Turnout fell to 63.7 percent, down from 66.5 percent at the last provincial vote in 2019.

Whoever forms the government will now continue negotiations with Paris over New Caledonia’s long term future.

If loyalists form a government, the pro-independence camp is likely to cry foul play and hurl accusations of being left out of the process.

Les Loyalistes-Le Rassemblement, led by outgoing Southern Province president Sonia Backes, made a strong showing in the south, the most populous province and center of the local economy.

Here it won just over half the vote. Backes told cheering supporters in the capital, Noumea, that voters had sent “an unambiguous message” that they wanted to stay as part of France.

The pro-independence camp is led by the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front, known by its French initials FLNKS. It has been bitterly divided since the riots and walked away from the talks with Paris late last year.

Whether it returns to the table remains to be seen. France itself is due to go to the polls next year for its presidential elections, which may determine New Caledonia’a future far more than these local elections.

Emmanuel Macron's term is limited and the race to succeed him is both fractured and causing jitters across the west.

The far-right outfit National Rally leads early polls with around 33 percent– well ahead of its rivals.

The party made gains in local government last year, particularly across the French Riviera. However, it has yet to designate a candidate.

Long-time leader Marine Le Pen has been barred from running for five years due to an embezzlement scandal.

Jordan Bardella, the party's 30-year-old leader, is predicted to become France’s youngest president in 2027.

A government ruled by RN would be deeply unsympathetic to New Caledonia, which it views as France’s rightful territory, taken by Napoleon III, no less.

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Polling behind the far right in second place is a far left candidate in Jean-Luc Melanchon. Think Bernie Sanders times 100.

Melanchon is anti-NATO, anti-EU, anti-Israel and But he in favour of independence for New Caledonia.

He has reaffirmed his support for decolonisation and independence of Kanaky New Caledonia in accordance with international law. He similarly supports French Guyana’s independence in South America.

Melanchon called the outcome of the independence referendm in 2021 a catastrophe, claiming the French government destroyed the consensus process of the 1998 Noumea Accords. These election results, it seems, are just the beginning.

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