Pacific unity: Centrifugal and centripetal force

These Islands By Robert A. Underwood

In my limited understanding of physics, centrifugal forces drive objects away from the center while centripetal forces keep objects close to the center. In my early education in the sciences decades ago, I was taught that centrifugal forces are apparent and not real, while centripetal forces are real, accounting for gravity and our rotation around the sun.

I thought about the physics of motion and unity as they exist in the Pacific today. Pacific island nations and territories are currently engaged in joint statements focused on the Blue Continent. The latest manifestation of thought and purpose is the Blue Pacific Ocean of Peace Declaration. Is this the centripetal force which will unite everyone around a common agenda?

Adopted last year during the Pacific Islands Forum meeting in Honiara, the declaration aims to promote peace, stability and prosperity in the region while also addressing climate change, natural disasters and socio-economic issues.

Jeremiah Manele, PIF chair and Solomon Islands prime minister, dramatically declared: “It is a solemn vow that our seas, air and lands will never again be drawn into the vortex of great power rivalry.”

Perhaps it is an easier statement to make south of the equator than north in the island Pacific. Great power rivalry and security concerns have never really left Micronesia. Guam remains the center of the distribution of American military might for the Asia-Pacific region, while the Marshall Islands has been a venue for American missile testing for three generations.

Of course, there have always been security concerns and issues in the South Pacific. Australia and, sometimes, France play a strong role in keeping the area peaceful while securely within the influence of Western nations.

Various efforts have been made to strengthen those relationships through various agreements surrounding police, monitoring of fishing agreements and regional cooperation along many lines.

On July 6, a Chinese submarine fired a ballistic missile that went across the open waters of the Pacific. It flew over the Federated States of Micronesia during the typhoon, which was hitting Guam and the Northern Marianas and landed inside the South Pacific, south of Kiribati, north of the Solomons and near the border of Tuvalu’s waters.

In some respects, this was a direct challenge to the Pacific island nations' declaration that they would “never again be subjected to the vortex of great power rivalry.” A PIF foreign ministers' meeting in Suva failed to issue a joint statement condemning the test. Palau, Tuvalu and Australia condemned the test as a direct violation of the declaration.

Kiribati and Naoero, China's allies, did not join the condemnation and worked against the declaration's adoption. They pointed out that Western nations routinely carry out missile tests and military exercises in the region without the same outcry. The fact that this was China's first submarine-launched missile test naturally drew considerable attention and concern, but it was unclear how to respond in a unified way.  

For its part, Fiji characterized the test as something that friends do not do and touted its own Veitacini Treaty with Australia as the Ocean of Peace Alliance. It may be raised in the upcoming PIF meeting in Palau.

The conservative Heritage Foundation characterized the test as a demonstration that China can target almost anywhere in the Western Hemisphere with little or no warning. While Heritage said the objective was to show the weakening U.S. deterrence, it also claimed this was an opportunity to expand U.S. diplomatic initiatives.

A diplomatic window is opening to build on the outrage many Pacific island nations feel. Heritage has proposed its own Pacific charter as a basis for renewed relationships between the United States and Pacific Island nations. Everyone seems to have a charter, treaty, framework or some kind of network for the Pacific.

China has its own five-year plan for the Pacific. This includes a $2 billion climate and clean energy initiative and continued efforts to work with local police in capacity building. Some observers remind us that the Biden administration spent $1 billion on climate change initiatives. Such an effort is absent under the Trump administration.

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Everyone is eagerly awaiting the PIF in Palau. Taiwan will be there because it has always been there. China will be there as a dialogue partner as well. There will be a significant U.S. presence, given that it is building facilities in Palau. Those facilities have sparked controversy over the environmental regulations being applied to them and over whether they contribute to international tensions or to the region's security.

It now seems appropriate to apply the laws of physics to the geostrategic analysis of the region. Was the Chinese missile test a centrifugal force that drove everyone in different directions, away from unity? Is the Blue Pacific Ocean of Peace Declaration a centripetal force aligning everyone in a natural orbit of harmony and non-interference?

 Perhaps the declaration is nothing but words to assuage the Pacific Island consciousness about who they are. Perhaps it is a statement of aspiration rather than reality.

It seems that every step taken by outside powers, whether from the East or the West, can easily upset the internal unity they were supposed to deliver.

I learned from my teachers that centrifugal forces are not real. Centripetal forces are real and it is a matter of perspective whether you are moving away from the center or in a comfortable orbit.

Like many things in the Pacific, perhaps the reverse is true. Centrifugal forces are real and the centripetal forces don’t really exist except in statements, declarations and solemn pronouncements.

 Dr. Robert Underwood is the former president of the University of Guam and former member of the U.S. House of Representatives. Send feedback to anacletus2010@gmail.com.

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