Pacific tourism booms in the first quarter. Is it a blip?

By James C. Pearce

International travel has already exceeded global expectations this year and hopes are sky high heading into summer.

As the northern hemisphere enters its summer vacation season, the southern and eastern parts of the globe are expecting a gold rush. Tourism has rebounded significantly since the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Asia-Pacific region is reaching above 90 percent of its pre-pandemic levels. Tourism was up 12 percent in the first quarter of 2025, hitting 92 percent of pre-pandemic levels, according to a recent United Nations report.

Asia is the big winner, with Japan as the regional star. It has seen a 34 percent growth in tourism, followed by Nepal (19 percent) South Korea and Mongolia (both 14 percent).

Of the currently booked trips for 2025, Osaka and Tokyo top the list of summer travel destinations worldwide. Pacific international travel was up 4 percent in the first quarter, slightly higher than the U.S.

Fiji reported a 4 percent growth in arrivals.

The Solomon Islands had its best quarter since 2019, with a 13.8 percent increase. However, it was still down 26 percent from the previous quarter.

French Polynesia, which saw record tourist numbers last year, has seen a 45 percent increase in transit visitors and is expecting 52,000 to arrive on cruises.

Vanuatu is also expected to announce huge numbers soon.  But behind these figures are several caveats and obstacles. Tourism numbers are still lower than the pre-pandemic levels and the Pacific is in a particularly delicate spot.

The Pacific is counting on massive tourism numbers to boost its overall GDP growth.

The Asian Development Bank forecasts a decline in the Pacific’s GDP growth over the next two years, noting that the regional tourism industry needs not only a boost, but much greater government support to overcome inflation and the Trump tariffs.

There are already warning signs. The latest panel of UN tourism experts' survey points to economic factors such as weaker economic growth, high travel costs and the increase in tariffs as the main three challenges that could impact international tourism this year.

Another report by Mastercard noted that travelers to the Pacific are sensitive to fluctuations in exchange rates, which cause travel hesitation.

Uncertainty derived from geopolitical and trade tensions is also weighing on travel confidence.

Lower consumer confidence was ranked as the fourth main factor affecting tourism this year, while geopolitical risks ranked fifth in the survey.

The survey also indicated that tourists, seeking value for their money, may also opt to travel closer to home or make shorter trips.

Mastercard also highlights the changing types of trips, tourist tastes and behavior.

The Pacific’s competition is, therefore, frankly enormous.

Across the Asia-Pacific region, travelers are prioritizing dining, nature and wellness as key motivators for travel over traditional sightseeing. The winners in this regard will be Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and New Zealand. They are comparatively cheaper, easier to get to, have much better local infrastructure and are more attractive to potential investors.

Sports travel is also expected to increase this year—in favor of Australia, which is hosting summer events including the Australian Open Tennis Tournament, the Rugby Championship and the British Lions rugby tour.

While the initial figures may be promising, the Pacific islands must rely on a few niches to attract more tourists.

First is the trend toward purpose-driven travel, reflecting people’s broader desire for experiences that nourish both body and spirit. It needs to market the case for a Pacific-themed retreat more strongly.

Second are the “tripsters” or backpackers out to see the lesser-visited corners of the Earth. They want the Instagram likes and can handle the long travel hours and lower-quality services.

Third is the new fascination with sustainable tourism. The Cook Islands, Kiribati and French Polynesia are throwing their weight behind this, opening new hotels operating on sustainable practices.

Fourth will be international travelers from Australia, New Zealand, Japan and China. The trip is much easier and affordable for them.

But all of these rely on a fifth niche: richer clients. All of the niches require a few extra thousand dollars than most travelers are often willing to fork out.

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