NWS doesn't rule out another possible super typhoon in the Marianas

By Pacific Island Times News Staff

Tropical Storm Bavi is still swathed in “unknown” elements, but a meteorologist does not rule out the possibility of another super typhoon, suggesting that excessive caution may not be a bad idea.

“Increasing potential for a super typhoon to pass somewhere between Guam and Saipan is a very distinct likelihood,” Landon Aydlett, meteorologist at the National Weather Service-Guam, said today. “I'd say the situation is looking fairly grim for whoever is going to be under the peak conditions of this tropical cyclone."

With several days before Bavi’s anticipated passage, however, forecasts are tentative.

Landon Aydlett

“In the best-case scenario, we have tropical storm-force conditions. We overprepare—not a problem,” Aydlett said.

“But in the worst-case scenario, we take a direct hit by this monster and could be dealing with possibly category four or category five super typhoon conditions and we're going to be in a bad situation for a period of time," he added.

Guam and the CNMI are bracing for Bavi while still recovering from Super Typhoon Sinlaku, which battered the islands in mid-April.

Aydlett said the onset of Bavi’s damaging force winds is estimated to phase into the Marianas region late Sunday morning and will continue building up for hours before the storm’s evening landfall.

“That’s the baseline for our watches, our warnings, and the conditions of readiness,” Aydlett said at today’s virtual briefing. “The most likely time of arrival we’re looking at is around Sunday 8 p.m. for Tinian and Saipan and maybe 9 or 10 p.m. for Guam and Rota.”

There are no typhoon watches or warnings currently in effect.

“You'll see that these are based on that timing of 48 hours for watches and 24 hours for warnings,” Aydlett said.

“We are still well outside of that boundary, so we're early in the game. This is the time to take actions to prepare and posture and be ready for the potential for a significant tropical cyclone,” he added.

As of early afternoon, Bavi was packing sustained winds of 30 mph, with the likelihood of increasing as it approaches over the next five days, Aydlett said, advising residents to begin preparing and securing items.

“Any southward shift would give a much higher potential for tropical storm or typhoon force winds,” he said. “This is a continuously evolving situation. We're going to be seeing those changes in the next three days.”

Forecast trends continue to show the storm moving west to northwest, steadily intensifying, and it is expected to rapidly intensify in the coming days.

“Our current track reflects a southward shift, now halfway between Rota and Tinian,” Aydlett said. “This could still shift further either to the south or to the north. Those shifts are still anticipated over the next 72 hours.”

He said damaging conditions may be anticipated from late Sunday afternoon through early Tuesday morning.

“We'll have to see if this rapid intensification does occur. If it does not, that's great news; we're going to have a weaker system,” Aydlett said.

“But if that rapid intensification occurs, we could be dealing with a major typhoon, if not a super typhoon, within our islands. The unknowns, and these are going to be the unknowns probably for several more days.”

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The American Red Cross said it will deploy disaster teams to Guam and the CNMI ahead of any landfall.

Saipan and Tinian are still reeling from the impact of Super Typhoon Sinlaku, which hit the islands on April 14.

There are still areas without power and power. Several residents are still trying to get their homes repaired and some have yet to return to work.

"The Red Cross continues to work closely with community partners to support impacted residents as they recover from Sinlaku and prepare for the potential storm," the charity group said.

"The local Red Cross Guam and CNMI chapters are coordinating with local officials and community partners to prepare for the storm. Red Cross volunteers are on standby to assist the community as needed, and American Red Cross disaster teams are currently en route to the islands ahead of potential landfall."

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