Diagnosing a small island democracy: What shapes Guamanian voters' decisions?

By Michael Lujan Bevacqua

In times past, someone uncertain of whom to vote for in a Guam election would have likely been swept along with family or clan urgings, or been convinced by roadside signs or visits by candidates to rosaries and funerals.

But the Aug. 1 primary election saw the emergence of a new voice that voters turned to, emblematic of changes taking place in Guam and other democracies today.

As more and more people seek AI assistance with their writing, financial planning and life choices, this held true for candidate choices. I heard from dozens of people of all ages, from manhoben to manåmko’, who had asked for ChatGPT’s wisdom in terms of whom to cast votes for in the 2026 primaries for governor and for the Guam legislature.

In the past, Guam's two-party system—whether the Democratic and Republican parties or the Popular and Territorial parties—would represent the majority of the voting public on island. When electoral politics was first permitted by the U.S. government following World War II, with elections for the Guam legislature in 1950 and for governor in 1970, it initially revolved around candidates, family clans and social networks.

While electoral victories could mean possible jobs and financial gains, they didn’t mean everyone who voted a certain way would get jobs. The parties were formed from systems of relationships that extended outward and would eventually consist of tens of thousands of people voting one way or the other because of party connections, even if there might only be a few hundred or a few thousand jobs at stake.

Family, civic, business and personal connections were key in helping people understand their place in a small island democracy. In this way, the campaigning by gaining endorsements from organizations, going into villages and making connections with families is all-important to help build a coalition of support.

The people in the middle of the partisan spectrum, who might be independent or unaffiliated or likely swing between parties, represented a tiny segment of the electorate.

In this political landscape, gaining or losing endorsements from key political, business or social figures could help move more people into your coalition.

The prospect of one particular side wielding political power and holding sway over jobs and projects could be central to these coalitions, helping keep their energy and organization.

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Over time, Guam’s population grew, and more and more people were not directly a part of these partisan networks of identity or affiliation. For them, the appeal of a party might lie in the issues or ideas it represents. Or there might be voters who have developed their identity by opposing the system of the past or rejecting the “party politics” and the “påri system.”

While one could applaud where we are today, with more voters not simply voting with family or direct financial interests, one downside is that the rise of unaffiliated or independent voters on Guam has dramatically decreased voter turnout and increased voter apathy. These two factors together make it difficult for candidates to use the traditional methods to reach voters.

In the past, you might campaign by shoring up your base, picking off voters from the other side and seeking major endorsements from community groups representing business interests or ethnic groups. But today, most residents aren’t even voters, and most voters aren’t paying attention.

It cannot be overstated how much social media has changed the average person’s news consumption, their understanding of their place in the world and, in turn, elections. Many of the previous campaign strategies may no longer move the needle much, but “breaking through” remains tried and true, albeit in an evolved form.

In the past, this would be breaking through the haze of the news cycle, doing or saying something that will stick, with the media as a story and then with people as well.

Today, it can refer to breaking through algorithmic walls. Someone can live on Guam, but their social media experience can completely isolate them from anything happening on island. Breaking through means getting past the silos people are in and finding ways into the feeds of the tens of thousands of people who don’t care and don’t pay attention, but may show up to vote.

In this climate, name recognition is the most valuable asset, but it is tricky to acquire in a way that motivates fickle voters, whose most enduring thought about a candidate might stem from a single event, a single idea, a joke or gaffe or even a meme.

If you flood social media with ads to introduce yourself to the public, will this only negatively impact you when people associate you with getting in the way of the prized content they want to watch? Or is any attention and all attention better than none nowadays?

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The question of social media is something all societies are struggling with nowadays. It requires self-reflection for the island about what kind of democracy we would like to be.

The twin problems of reduced voter turnout and increased apathy make the ground fertile for platitudes like “all candidates are the same,” “it doesn’t matter what we do, everything just stays the same,” “who cares anyway?” or “everybody is corrupt.” It is a self-fulfilling cycle that can lead to democratic decay.

Even if someone feels like there might be truth to these apathy-inducing ideas, they miss the fact that democracies remain what the community puts into them. They speak to the mood of people, but not necessarily the possibilities of a democracy or, in our case, Guam’s.

We live on a small island where you can walk into most elected officials’ offices on any given day and speak to them and where you can have a chance to speak to almost anyone running for office. The potential connections we share on this small island could provide a strong foundation for our democracy, for working together, keeping tabs on potential and current leaders and voting for a better future.

Check what ChatGPT has to say about that.

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