Chinese missiles miss the mark; US missiles hit the target

These Islands By Robert Underwood

The unity of Pacific island countries and territories is frequently called into question when Pacific Ocean-wide issues are raised. In fact, Pacific island territories' legitimacy to participate in the Pacific Islands Forum's high-level conversations has been challenged. French “territories” are included, but U.S. territories are peripheral participants. They have been invited to the party, but sit at the children’s table.

This is true in almost all issues affecting the self-proclaimed Blue Continent, including climate change and economic activities. Of course, U.S. sovereign (aka colonial) control over the territories makes it almost impossible to participate in conversations regarding climate change or deep seabed mining.

This is especially the case when the Trump administration exhibits hostility toward environmental issues and declares open season for big corporations to extract resources in what would be the exclusive economic zones of non-self-governing territories. It doesn’t matter what local territorial officials say, even if they are all united in opposition.

Enter the missile conflict, which directly impacts the Pacific initiative for the Ocean of Peace. The U.S. regularly tests missiles in the area between California and the Marshall Islands. China recently tested a missile that landed somewhere in the South Pacific. It may not have landed in a testing range like the Marshalls, but it tested the unity and resolve of the Pacific island community.

Is the Chinese missile a new threat to the actual Pacific or a signal that the United States mainland is vulnerable to a Chinese attack? Launched from a submarine, this multiple-reentry vehicle missile, which can hit Los Angeles or Seattle, landed near Tuvalu and Tonga. It was not the actual target. It could be China's expression of displeasure over Fiji's recent inclusion in the Ocean of Peace Alliance, the fourth nation to join the Australia-led movement. So many words are devoted to peace in a time of uncertainty and anxiety.

Pacific Command Adm. Samuel Paparo has announced an intention to place offensive weapons in Guam. Is the island Pacific entering a new era of geostrategic competition?

Key indicators seem to suggest that something dramatic is happening. Dropping the "Indo" from "Indo-Pacific" now clearly reestablishes the zone of contention. We also have the reported deployment of the Dark Eagle hypersonic missile in Guam along with Tomahawk missiles to be fired from the island. Paparo released a picture of himself in Guam next to the launcher, but there is no actual missile.

China's submarine-launched missile was nuclear-capable, but had a dummy warhead. These two dummy exercises are making it clear that the Pacific is the smart place to deal with when it comes to geostrategic competition. The Chinese missile didn’t really hit the ostensible target, which was the U.S. coastline.

But the U.S. regularly hits the mark in the Kwajalein missile testing range in the Marshall Islands.

Pacific island nations have been critical of China for increasing tensions and entering the Blue Continent as if the ocean expanse of the Pacific were a kind of nuclear- or military-free zone. The Ocean of Peace is more an aspiration than a reality. Much of the Pacific is already involved in the geostrategic competition, including new base construction in Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia.

China provokes the Pacific by using it as a target range despite its assertions that this was a routine test. But it is also surprising to hear critical voices from Pacific island nations and territories raise concerns about geostrategic competition when their own islands are heavily invested in militarizing the region for purposes of “defense” or “deterrence.”

It isn’t just the classic game of trying to figure out who started it. Which one is the chicken and which one is the egg? Is it China or the United States? There is more to this than assigning who is most guilty. How to end the competition without engaging in a real conflict is the real challenge. Promoting more weaponry, building more facilities and flexing naval warfare capabilities feels like the right thing to do until you get into a conflict that can be avoided.

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China is ascendant technologically. The capacity of the missiles being developed by each side is not equal. The payload of the Chinese hypersonic missiles is 30 or more times greater than the Dark Eagle system’s. Moreover, we have the lessons being begrudgingly learned in Iran today (and Ukraine in earlier years) that robust military forces may not be sufficient to deal with “lesser” adversaries.

In the meantime, Guam gets a front-row seat to the contest. Like a front row seat in a movie theater, it can be frightening and disturbing. It might even be deadly. The question for the Blue Continent leaders is how to be an Ocean of Real Peace through means other than war. Much of the island Pacific has seen this movie 80-plus years ago. They didn’t have a voice then.

They do now. The careful voice could become a voice for a real peace alliance. 

Dr. Robert Underwood is the former president of the University of Guam and former member of the U.S. House of Representatives. Send feedback to anacletus2010@gmail.com.

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