China's game: Retired Marine colonel raises warning about war the US is already losing

5 minutes ago

6 min read

By Bryan Manabat

China's expanding influence across the Pacific islands has become one of the most consequential strategic challenges facing the United States, according to Grant Newsham, a retired U.S. Marine colonel, former foreign service officer and author who specializes in Indo-Pacific security and Chinese political strategy.

In a wide-ranging interview with the Pacific Island Times, Newsham said that Beijing's efforts throughout Oceania are not isolated economic or diplomatic initiatives, but part of a long-term campaign aimed at expanding Chinese influence, weakening U.S. strategic advantages and ultimately reshaping the security architecture of the Pacific.

"The Pacific Ocean region and the Pacific islands tie directly to America's homeland defense," Newsham said. "They are strategic geography that, if under an adversary's control, makes defense of the United States much more difficult."

Newsham said Washington's ability to support allies including Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan depends on maintaining secure access across the Pacific and preserving partnerships with island nations that provide strategic locations, logistical support and freedom of maneuver for U.S. forces.

If Chinese influence further expands unchecked, he warned, the United States could face increasingly difficult operating conditions throughout the region. "And if PLA forces are able to operate in the region, the U.S. will be in the difficult position of having to fight its way across the Pacific in order to assist its allies."

He argued that the Pacific should be viewed not only through a military lens but also as a critical economic corridor connecting the United States to Asia.

Newsham said Chinese dominance in the region could raise questions about Taiwan's security, potentially disrupting global supply chains dependent on Taiwanese semiconductor production and threatening maritime routes vital to Japan and South Korea.

"Interrupt Taiwan exports and the global economic effects will be immense," he said.

Newsham, the author of the bestseller "When China Attacks: A Warning to America," was stationed in the Indo-Pacific for decades. He is a former reserve head of intelligence for Marine Forces Pacific. He was instrumental in establishing Japan’s amphibious force.

According to Newsham, Beijing's strategy extends far beyond traditional diplomacy. The communist regime's decades-long campaign for political influence involves commercial investments, infrastructure development, elite engagement and economic dependency. These strategies, he said, are visible throughout every Pacific island nation and elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific.

The process often starts with commercial activity and investment in sectors such as fishing, mining, timber and retail trade before extending into political, business and community networks, he said.

Newsham contends that those relationships are frequently reinforced through financial incentives, scholarships, travel programs and other forms of influence that create long-term ties with political and economic elites.

He pointed to recent U.S. actions against individuals accused of advancing Chinese interests, including the designation of Fiji-based Chinese official Zhao Fugang for alleged corruption-linked activities and a separate U.S. designation involving a former Palauan political leader accused of accepting bribes to support Chinese interests.

In 2022, two Chinese nationals holding Marshall Islands citizenship pleaded guilty to bribery and other criminal charges before a U.S. court in connection with an attempt to establish an exclusive economic zone on the Rongelap atoll near Kwajalein Atoll.

Cary Yan and Gina Zhou handed out bribes to Marshallese legislators in a bid to get them to rubberstamp their proposed project, pleaded guilty. They were released from prison in 2023. In February 2025, they attempted to enter Palau using Marshallese passports.

While welcoming U.S. sanctions against malicious actors, Newsham criticized Washington for what he described as inconsistent follow-through. "The U.S. needs to go beyond these half-measures and instead go all out exposing China's subversive activities," he said.

According to Newsham, exposing financial flows connected to foreign influence operations remains critical. "Track the flow of Chinese money throughout Pacific Island societies, especially in leadership circles, and there will be plenty of people with explaining to do," he said.

China uses its Belt and Road Initiative to advance its regional ambitions. Ports, airfields and telecommunications projects are frequently presented as civilian investments, but often possess dual-use potential.

"Ports and airfields are invariably dual-use," Newsham said. "Any time the Chinese are involved in a port or an airfield, you can bet they have a future military use in mind."

He cited Chinese interest in infrastructure projects in Papua New Guinea, Kiribati, and other Pacific jurisdictions as examples of developments that he said warrant regional scrutiny.

Undersea telecommunications cables, meanwhile, present what he described as intelligence-collection opportunities and potential leverage during future crises.

Newsham also argued that Chinese policing and law-enforcement cooperation agreements in the Pacific should be viewed as part of a longer-term strategic effort.

"The Chinese always have a security presence in mind, but they are patient and in no hurry to deploy the People's Liberation Army just yet," he said. "Instead, by establishing policing assistance and advisory relationships in the region, they are laying the groundwork for eventual direct military deployment."

Another concern, Newsham said, involves the activities of Chinese organized crime networks operating throughout the Pacific. He noted that criminal organizations contribute to influence operations through intimidation, intelligence gathering, gambling operations, blackmail, prostitution and narcotics trafficking.

Those claims have been repeatedly rejected by Chinese officials, who maintain that China opposes transnational crime and respects the sovereignty of Pacific island nations.

Newsham, nevertheless, argued that organized crime networks have an outsized impact because many Pacific jurisdictions possess limited investigative resources and small populations.

The broader objective, he said, is to erode what has long been a secure strategic environment for the United States and its allies.

Describing the Pacific as the "rear area" supporting U.S. and allied positions along the so-called first island chain stretching from Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines, Newsham said Chinese political and economic influence threatens to undermine a network of relationships that has historically guaranteed freedom of movement across the region.

He noted the strategic importance of the freely associated states—Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands—whose agreements with Washington provide the United States with significant defense authorities and restrictions on foreign military access.

"The Chinese are effectively leap-frogging the first island chain and are already firmly ensconced in the second island chain," Newsham said. "And they have done it without firing a shot."

Newsham believes the Pacific's greatest vulnerability stems not from geography alone but from decades of neglect by Washington. He argued that the United States spent much of the past four decades focused on Northeast Asia and the Middle East while underestimating China's growing presence across smaller Pacific jurisdictions.

"Chinese embassies are fully staffed and numerous. American embassies are smaller and fewer," he said. "At the moment there are no U.S. ambassadors present in the region. That says a lot."

While Newsham said the U.S. military has recently devoted greater attention and resources to the Pacific, he believes American policymakers still lack sufficient on-the-ground awareness about political and economic dynamics across many island nations.

He specifically highlighted the late CNMI Gov. Arnold Palacios, whom he credited with confronting Chinese-linked commercial interests and warning Washington about corruption and security concerns as U.S. military activities expanded in the commonwealth.

Newsham also credited former Micronesian President David Panuelo and late Malaita Premier Daniel Suidani for issuing public warnings about China's influence-peddling. "There are plenty of Pacific islands leaders and citizens who are not on the Chinese payroll and want to preserve their freedoms and sovereignty," he said. "They need more attention and support from the United States, Australia and others."

Despite his concerns, Newsham stressed that China's influence campaign is not inevitable. He called for closer coordination among the United States, Japan, Australia, South Korea, New Zealand, Taiwan, the Philippines and India, arguing that economic development, transparency and anti-corruption initiatives are essential to maintaining regional stability.

"The Pacific islands have been a decisive theater for a long time," Newsham said. "The question is whether the United States acts before Chinese influence becomes too entrenched."

China, however, has consistently rejected allegations that it seeks military expansion or political domination in the Pacific. Beijing says its engagement with Pacific island nations focuses on economic development, infrastructure construction, climate cooperation and mutually beneficial partnerships.

Chinese officials have repeatedly stated that China does not seek a "sphere of influence" and have dismissed reports of military basing ambitions in the Pacific as "false narratives."

As competition between the world's two largest powers intensifies, Newsham argues that the future of the Pacific islands may prove critical not only to regional security, but to the strategic balance of the entire Indo-Pacific.

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