Census Bureau: US territories' population to drop by 2100
By Pacific Island Times News Staff
More residents are projected to leave the American territories in the Pacific, and families will have fewer children, causing the region's population to shrink by the end of the century, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
The bureau reported that declining fertility and outmigration are evident in the Northern Mariana Islands, Guam and American Samoa.
American Samoa is forecast to lose more than half of its population. Its population began to fall around 2010 and is projected to plummet by another 61 percent by 2100.
The Northern Mariana Islands’ population began declining in 2000 and is projected to drop another 17 percent by 2100. The CNMI's current population is 42,527.
While Guam’s population will not see a population drop until 2030, the territory is forecast to end the century with about 38 percent fewer people than it has now, which is approximately 160,000.
The Census Bureau did not mention the anticipated population growth related to the military buildup.
The trend is also evident in the U.S. Virgin Islands, a Caribbean territory, which experienced its most rapid population decline between 2010 and 2020. It is projected to lose 41 percent of its current population by 2100.
“Across territories, projections assume that net outmigration will decline gradually and reach zero by 2100, helping maintain realistic long-term population estimates for these small populations,” states the Census Bureau’s Nov. 7 report written by Sophia Magalona and Rachel J. Bacon.
The Census Bureau’s population updates integrate the latest available data and reflect recent changes in fertility, mortality and migration trends.
The U.S. territories’ population projections were included in the latest International Database, which provides information on population growth, decline, and aging.
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The Northern Mariana Islands is expected to begin seeing a natural decrease—when deaths exceed births—by 2089. In the U.S. Virgin Islands, natural decrease is predicted as early as next year.
“Fertility declined in all four territories over the past decade, but American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands experienced the steepest decreases,” states the report.
Total fertility rate is measured based on the average number of children per woman.
In American Samoa, the total fertility rate was already on a downward trajectory in 2000, falling from 4.0 that year to 2.1 in 2026.
In the Northern Mariana Islands, fertility did not begin to decline until 2016 but fell rapidly from 3.3 to 2.0 by 2026.
Guam experienced a 0.8 decrease in fertility rate over a 12-year period, from 3.2 in 2014 to 2.4 in 2026, and the U.S. Virgin Islands’ fertility rate dropped from 2.5 in 2007 to 1.9 in 2026.
The U.S. Virgin Islands and the Northern Mariana Islands are currently below that level.
American Samoa has hovered around the replacement level since 2021 but is projected to fall below it in 2029, and Guam is expected to do so in 2056.
More people have left than moved into each territory since 2000.
In 2026, the number of people entering minus those leaving per 1,000 residents, known as the "net migration rate," was -4.8 per thousand people in Guam; -5.4 in the U.S. Virgin Islands; -11.2 in the Northern Mariana Islands; and -25.1 in American Samoa.
Guam saw fewer people leave than enter the territory during the Covid-19 pandemic — which hit in March 2020 — due to travel restrictions.
While net outmigration has started to pick up, it remains below pre-2020 levels.
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In the U.S. Virgin Islands, net outmigration jumped sharply between the 2010 and 2020 Censuses, likely linked to the shutdown of a large oil refinery, the 2017 hurricanes Irma and Maria, and persistent economic and structural issues.
The report did not examine potential population shifts in Puerto Rico, which declined 11.8 percent from 2010-2020, according to the advocacy group Right to Democracy.
Adi Martínez-Román, co-director of Right to Democracy, attributed the dramatic population loss in U.S. territories to the federal government’s policies.
“Unilateral federal decision-making does not serve our interests. In order to thrive, our communities need power and agency over the decisions that impact our lives,” Martínez-Román said.
“This report should be a wake-up call to elected officials in U.S. territories to demand a fundamental shift in the relationship with Washington; otherwise, this displacement will continue,” he added.
Neil Weare, co-director of Right to Democracy, said the “power imbalance” created by the territories’ colonized status takes its toll on the quality of life of territorial residents.
“The last several years have shown that people in the territories can no longer afford to let federal actors make all the decisions while leaving people in these communities to live with the result with no say,” Weare said. “No one should have to leave their home and loved ones just to make ends meet or receive the medical care they need."
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