Another storm coming? NWS tracking tropical disturbance in Chuuk

By Pacific Island Times News Staff

The National Weather Service has been tracking a broad tropical disturbance in Chuuk State for several days, with numerical forecast models indicating several possible scenarios, including the formation of another typhoon that could pass through the Marianas.

The poorly organized tropical disturbance labeled "Invest 90W," has been nearly stationary, meandering around south of Weno, bringing showers, thunderstorms, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the

Federated States of Micronesia.

NWS said some scenarios indicate a passage through the Marianas in some form of a tropical cyclone, such as a tropical depression, tropical storm, or typhoon, around midweek, whereas other scenarios indicate no clear threat to the Marianas.

At this time, it’s too early to pinpoint any single forecast scenario for next week. Much of this hinges closely on the development of the low-level circulation center and its initial motion from the FSM. Until these near-term issues evolve, the longer range forecasts will remain speculative.

90W is rated “low” for development, meaning that development into a tropical

depression within the next 24 hours is unlikely.

"Residents across the FSM should anticipate periods of scattered showers,

isolated thunderstorms, locally heavy rainfall and stronger, gusty winds, particularly near 90W, over the next few days. Conditions will improve early next week as this disturbance lifts northwest from the region," NWS said.

Earlier today, a poorly-organized circulation center was located near

5.2N 152.8E. Satellite trends indicate ongoing wind shear is keeping the heavier showers and thunderstorms displaced to the west of the circulation center.

These factors will mitigate development potential in the near-term (next two

days). Global models show a general track toward the north-northwest this weekend, but with a wide range of solutions by early next week. At this time, there’s no clear solution as to 90W’s development potential or forecast track.