A deep dive from the shallow end

Pacific Reflections By Gabriel McCoard

 In my column last month, I mentioned that the Federated States of Micronesia’s population hovered around 115,000. That number was overly optimistic. A reader pointed out that, based on the FSM Statistics Office, FSM’s official population as of 2023 was 75,817.

Over the past 13 years, the FSM has lost over 27,000 people, or 2,079 people each year, down from the 2010 census of 102,843.

These numbers, however, are not ironclad. The World Bank Group’s 2024 estimate was 113,160, reflecting outmigration of 1,125 people. Despite this, per the World Bank, the FSM has experienced population growth of .5 percent annually, which is basically staying the same. The FSM statistics office did not forecast growth rates.

This, of course, led me to dive into other random pieces of information. According to the FSM government, Chuuk's per capita gross domestic product, which represents the monetary value of goods and services produced in a specific location over a certain period, was $1,557. Nationally, the country produced $2,695 per capita as of 2023.

The World Bank’s 2024 estimate for the FSM was higher at $4,166.

In case you were wondering, the FSM Division of Statistics reported that the population peaked at 107,008 in 2000. The lowest was registered at 62,731 in 1973, the first year for which numbers are available.

Reading these in light of the ongoing electoral uncertainty, it’s easy to attribute absentee voting to just one of the issues plaguing Chuuk's gubernatorial election. But the impact of a chronically absent population can readily be felt when much of the population is chronically absent and when the economy largely depends on outsiders.

If ever there was a need for a court to rule on an issue, especially in a relatively young republic such as the FSM, surely the ongoing drama for the governor of Chuuk is it.

The questions remain unanswered. Which has, or should have, jurisdiction over the case: the state or the national court? Does the FSM recognize the supremacy of federal law over that of the states? Is there a political question doctrine suggesting that certain questions are best left to the elected legislature to answer? Can these issues be amicably answered in a political confederation where one member can come remarkably close to vetoing any collective effort?

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The rule of law comes not from non-government advisors or case management software, nor from judicial development conferences; it comes from qualified judges hearing cases and deciding them.

In this process comes a resolution of a dispute, so long as a court order will be enforced. As more cases are decided, a body of law—derived from judicial opinions—emerges, which in turn provides some predictability about how a disagreement is likely to end.

The downside? It takes a long time.

Same with statutes, or what we think of as “law,” that legislatures have passed. In Chuuk, finding copies of what the law actually says is beyond challenging.

The rule of law is not limited to questions related to election disputes; it also covers everyday transactions such as selling goods or property or even a foreigner offering investment.   

Regional media has not had much say about the election in the past month, likely because there’s not much to say. The flow of information has been less than a trickle. Most of the filings made in the courts, not to mention any rulings, are not readily available outside the physical boundaries of the courthouse.

What media is littered with, of course, is the Typhoon Sinlaku recovery, the inundation of NGOs and other trappings that constitute this thing called the “international community,” complete with ambassadorial well-wishes for rebuilding in a state where chronic, endemic poverty is met with barely a shrug.

As the dust settles from the Chuuk race for governor, or perhaps it already has, and we just don’t know it yet, I hope that its judiciary, federal and state, will meet the challenge before it. 

Gabriel McCoard is an attorney who previously worked in Palau and Chuuk State. Send feedback to gabrieljmccoard@hotmail.com.

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