Legal, political tensions shape Kanaky’s path toward self-determination

By Ron Rocky Coloma

The future of Kanaky, New Caledonia, remains uncertain as legal debates, political divisions and community realities continue to shape what Indigenous advocates describe as an unfinished process of decolonization.

At the center of that argument is Viro Xulue, who framed the territory’s status not as a political disagreement but as a matter of international law and human rights. “The decolonization of Kanaky is an international obligation that remains incomplete,” he said.

His position draws on United Nations frameworks that place New Caledonia on the list of non-self-governing territories, requiring France to guide the territory toward a political future determined by its people. He cited provisions of the UN Charter and key resolutions that recognize the right to self-determination and outline pathways toward independence, free association or integration.

“All peoples have the right to self-determination,” he said, pointing to international covenants that reinforce that principle across civil, political and economic rights.

While France has long described the decolonization process as a gradual transfer of powers, Xulue said recent events have exposed structural gaps that remain unresolved.

“The current crisis is not a surprise,” he said. “It is the result of ignored systemic issues.”

Those issues came into sharper focus following the unrest in May 2024, which left multiple people dead, led to thousands of arrests and caused widespread economic damage. Community leaders say recovery is still ongoing, with many residents dealing with the social and economic fallout.

Xulue pointed to disparities affecting the Indigenous Kanak population, citing figures from French institutions that show higher poverty rates, lower access to higher education and disproportionate representation in the prison system.

“These are not activist figures,” he said. “They are France’s own data.”

For observers like Nic Maclellan, the current moment is defined as much by political uncertainty as it is by social recovery. “This throws the whole process up in the air and creates a level of uncertainty,” Maclellan said, referring to stalled legislation and contested agreements in France that could delay a long-term settlement.

He said disagreements remain between pro-independence groups and those who want to remain within France, particularly over proposed changes to voting rights in local elections. That issue, he said, will continue to shape political debates regardless of whether broader agreements move forward.

Maclellan also pointed to upcoming provincial elections and shifting political dynamics in France as factors that could further complicate negotiations.

“Tough times ahead,” he said, noting that economic pressures and global instability are likely to affect the territory alongside ongoing political tensions.

The legal and political debates are rooted in the legacy of the Nouméa Accord, signed in 1998, which established a framework for the transfer of powers and set out a process for determining New Caledonia’s future status through a series of referendums.

Three votes were held between 2018 and 2021. While the first two produced narrow majorities against independence, the third referendum was boycotted by pro-independence groups and widely criticized.

Xulue said the 2021 vote lacked legitimacy. “It was organized without free, prior and informed consent,” he said.

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He also criticized subsequent efforts to negotiate new arrangements, including the Bougival Accord, arguing that they were developed without meaningful participation from Kanak institutions.

“It is perceived as a unilateral imposition,” he said.

Despite those concerns, discussions between France and local political groups have continued, with some factions participating while others remain opposed.

At the same time, community leaders say the focus on the ground has shifted toward recovery and resilience.

Guillaume Vama, a community practitioner working with youth, said rebuilding trust and strengthening local initiatives are essential as communities move forward.

“We have to understand the history of our country,” Vama said, emphasizing that development efforts must be rooted in local knowledge and experience.

He highlighted the importance of youth engagement, nonviolence approaches and intergenerational leadership, particularly in the aftermath of the 2024 unrest.

Vama said young people are not only participants in political movements but also key actors in shaping community recovery.

“We are trying to put in place concrete actions for our region,” he said, pointing to grassroots initiatives that aim to support cultural identity and economic development.

Those community-based efforts are increasingly being recognized alongside formal political processes, as regional organizations and advocates seek to incorporate local perspectives into broader discussions.

Joey Tau, who works with Pacific partners on regional advocacy, said the goal is to bring together voices from communities, youth and civil society to better understand conditions on the ground.

“For many of us in the region, this is about the right to be self-determined, the right to be heard,” Tau said.

He said the current moment reflects both a continuation of long-standing struggles and a new phase shaped by recent events, including the Bougival Accord and legislative developments in France.

“What happens next is important,” Tau said, referring to both political negotiations and the everyday realities faced by residents.

For Xulue, those realities reinforce the need for a process that aligns with international standards.

He outlined several principles he believes should guide future efforts, including the strict application of free, prior and informed consent, equal participation of Kanak institutions in decision-making and stronger international oversight.

“The decolonization process cannot be reversed,” he said, referencing commitments made under earlier agreements.

He also pointed to recent findings from France’s National Consultative Commission on Human Rights, which documented structural inequalities and raised concerns about the current trajectory.

“France condemns itself,” Xulue said, describing the findings as confirmation of long-standing issues.

Regional initiatives, including efforts to gather firsthand accounts from communities, are now feeding into advocacy at international forums such as the United Nations and Pacific regional organizations.

Advocates say those efforts are intended to ensure that discussions about Kanaky’s future reflect not only political negotiations but also lived experiences.

“Decolonization is a living, evolving process,” Xulue said. “It requires respect for human rights and international law.”

As negotiations continue and communities work to rebuild, that principle remains central to ongoing debates about the territory’s future.

For many in Kanaky, the outcome will depend not only on decisions made in Paris, but on whether those decisions reflect the voices and aspirations of the people on the ground.

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